Jaxa Arctic Sea ICE Exteent: 13,310,739 km2 as March 1-2025
– Loss of extension on this 2k day, which is 2 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
– The extent gain of the minimum on this date is 9,238 k, which is 454 K, 4.7% less than the 10 -year average of 9,692 k.
– The extension is the first time lower in the 47 -year -old satellite record. The extension has been lower for 43 days so far this year.
Fountain: https: //forum.ártico-sea-ce.net/index.php? Topic = 4329.msg421469#MSG421469
NSIDC Arctic Marine Ice Area (average of 5 days): 12,059,115 km2 to March 1-2025
– Loss of area on this 2k day, which is 8 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
– The gain of the minimum area on this date is 9,547 K, which is 165k km2, 1.7% less than the average of 10 years of 9,713 K.
– The area is in position #1 in the satellite registry ( #1 = lower), and for 34 days this year.
Fountain: https: //forum.ártico-sea-ce.net/index.php? Topic = 4329.msg421500#MSG421500
1. This is notoriously difficult to predict, although the Enso/so has done so for each since 2015.
2. The greatest impact is of climatic conditions in a given year. For example, 2012:
A. A great inexplicated fall of almost 1 m km square at the beginning of spring, heavy sunstroke in June (the most highly correlated annual effect in LO), the infamous GAC (great Arctic Cyclone) of early August and, more harmful, the di-pole that is established to channel thus from the Pacific side through the Fram Strait for the virtually virtually all summer.
In spite of * none * of those conditions that have been repeated since 2012 and, in fact, the ice retention conditions dominate every year during the following decade, the lowest levels in 2015-16, 2019-20 and 2024 followed the projections of low models in/as well.
Said all this, we all know that there is an unprecedented warming. Several sources are set at the beginning since 2014, which would indicate a complete system change, or the escape of the system due to the next time in 2015-16, others (Hansen, et al.) Established it around 2023 due to sulfur reductions from 2020 more or less. I have also seen the tendency to increase change rates linked to the 2016-2018 period.
Choose your poison, but my opinion is quite simple: we have reached a turning point. A recent article shows that high -latitude areas have become carbon sources since the beginning of 2012. This points to the slow roll of the early stages of a turning point, IMO. They gain impulse as each dominoes fall and, unlike the dominated ones, they accelerate because, as I have asked and declared for at least 15 years, IIRC, where is hysteresis? The dominoes have a hysteresis incorporated in the form of friction with each other, a uniform rate of gravitational force, etc., but we have been demolishing all dominoes at the same time. Flitting the table, so to speak. Again, in my opinion.
Then, with a minimum record as the ice formation season ends, record temperatures (+1.7C for February) worldwide are still present and show that the oceans are saturated with heat/energy, we can be seeing a new record of minimum, if not a BOE (blue ocean event), this summer.
Ore due to absolutely perfect ice retention conditions this summer: cold temperatures, without gac, without dipole, mainly east winds, low insolation.
#REALCLIMATE #FORCED #VARIATIONS #March
