Los Angeles’s fires were made by man, but not as they say: are we going with that?

Of CFACT

by Chris Martz

The political fires that were turned on with the president Donald Trump’s The second inauguration moved the national attention of the devastating forest fires in California.

Now completely content, the Los Angeles It should not allow the county fires to fade in the history books, attributed to another consequence of man -made global warming. Politicians trying to blame for disaster for climate change not only try to avoid responsibility, but are simply wrong.

Fires require three key ingredients: a source of ignition, fuel and oxygen. Forest fires Do not combine spontaneously because the planet is 1.2 ° C warmer now that in 1850. There must first be a source of ignition. These can be natural, such as lightning or man done, such as fireworks, sparks or fires. Ninety -seven percent of the fires between 1992 and 2012 had a human ignition source, according to a study Posted by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

California Mediterránea is no exception. While the exact cause of Los Angeles fires has not yet been determined, the rays have already been ruled out. If it was an accident, a broken fire or broken utility lines is still unknown. If it was a broken electric line, southern California, Edison must explain why he did not de -manage his transmission lines in the foothills. What is known is that climatic conditions have been mature so that the fires escape containment and spread.

The weather

Before the fires began, the National Meteorological Service Office in Los Angeles warned of “potentially mortal” and “destructive” wind storms. Residents were advised to remain inside and far from the windows as strong northeast winds with gusts higher than 80 mph The mountains of Santa Monica and the surrounding foothills were expected to be hit. Such bursts can overthrow not only trees but also the utility lines and loose objects that can turn on fires, which can extend rapidly.

The meteorology behind this is simple. The northeast winds that whipped the northeast resulted from a strict pressure gradient between high pressure on the large basin and low pressure on Baja California. While the pressure gradient points to higher values, the acceleration acts inversely, changing the direction of the wind prevailing to the north, northeast. The more tight the gradient, the stronger the winds are.

As the air mass moves to lower pressures, it is channeled through the mountain passes, the leafy side descends and flows towards the foothills. The air channel through a region of greater pressure makes it compress, accelerating the air because the same mass is forced through a smaller opening; Consider the avalanche of air you feel when the core of the valve is removed to deflate a tire. Compression dries and heats the air at a speed of 17.6 ° F per kilometer of descent. Once the hot and dry winds reach the foothills, they dry the vegetation, particularly the fuels in small diameter, such as twigs, leaves and grass, in less than 10 hours and fueling existing fires by supplying more oxygen.

These winds are known as the winds of Santa Ana. They occur every year, and all residents in southern California are familiar with them.

He News articles Linking of Los Angeles fires with the climate change caused by man cites the increasingly dry vegetation caused by the increase in temperatures and the decrease in rain. While he has heated 5.4 ° F. Since the records began in 1878, probably in part due to the effect of the urban heat island, there is no statistically significant trend in the rain: 2023 was the sixth most innocent registered year.

In addition, it is worth considering that, at the regional scale, the southwest has been Becoming drier Since at least 1895. Since 2000, he has been in what is Freely defined As a “megadroughty.” In fact, the southwest has a well -documented story of “megadroughs.” Evidence Tree ring Reconstructions indicates That current “Megadroughh” of western North America has precedents in the last millennium. The “medieval megadrophy” of 400 years, which occurred between 900 and 1300 AD, has exceeded any registered period of aridity since then.

There is no conclusive evidence that greenhouse gas emissions triggered mortal fires. For example, variations in air temperature and average precipitation are minimal in relation to the burning area. Fire can burn regardless of whether the air is hot or cold. TO study Published by the American Association for the Advance of Science, it found that the maximum temperature during all the fires driven by the Santa Ana wind from 1948 to 2018 ranged from 43 ° F and 95 ° F. The authors indicated that there was no No causal link between the burned surface and the temperature. In addition, there was a weak correlation between the burning surface and the rain in the previous seven days.

Fuels, particularly small diameter fuels, dry quickly when climatic conditions change. The drying effect of Santa Ana’s winds makes the vegetation highly flammable in just a few hours, even if the rain has been above the average. Although the American Association for the Study of Progress of Sciences found that there are no fires during 75% of Santa Ana’s wind events, it also found that humans cause 100% of the fires associated with these winds.

Therefore, humans induced ignitions have a much greater impact on fire risk than background environmental conditions influenced by a changing climate.

There is still no consensus on future changes in Santa Ana’s wind events. An observed study An increase in Santa Ana wind days in the last two decades, linking this trend to an ascending frequency of jet flow configurations over California. However, Another paper He discovered that the southwest pressure gradient that conducts the winds of Santa Ana decreases in the authors’ models in response to heating, although the recessions are less pronounced in winter. These and similar studies put significant doubts about the connection between fire and climate change caused by man.

Reduce future fire risks

In northern California, which is densely forested, the exclusion of fires and poor forest management, such as insufficient mechanical thinning and prescribed burning, have led to an accumulation of fuel of a century, mainly in federal lands. In contrast, the fuel load in southern California consists mainly of a chaparral brush and Species of non -native plantssuch as eucalyptus, which contains flammable oils and palm trees, which are easily lit due to its fibrous texture.

Although forest management is not so significant, fuel reduction can still compensate for the small increase in fire danger as a result of future heating as well as 15% relative until today under the “business as usual” broadcast scenario. Essentially, rapid economic decarbonization efforts would be useless.

Taking into account that 97% of fires are caused by humans, concentrating 11 million people who want to live in sunny areas for six to nine months a year in a few thousand square miles will inevitably result in an increase in the fire incidents.

Fire risk reduction will depend on the increase in public awareness of fire safety to reduce Ignitions, increase fire extinction resources, implement and enforce more strict construction codes that require fire -resistant construction for homes for homes and guaranteeing that the southern California Edison cuts the power transmission during high events to minimize the risk of fires caused by falling power lines or, alternatively, buries its lines underground.

While there are many useful mitigation techniques that we could use, I am not convinced that any of them will be implemented. It is too easy for progressives to continue focusing on the “zero” net “objectives and blaming all environmental disasters to climate change.

That allows them already their allies in the media and then pointing out the energy companies and demanding expensive paying through litigation and legislation such as climatic superfoundos. Energy companies that produce what humanity requires to survive becomes the villains in the game of morality of climate change, conveniently diverting the attention of the policies of progressives who increased the risk of fire in recent decades: Inadequate urban planning and neglected essential thinning. And if their mischief are successful, they get millions of dollars to play.

You should not allow them to get away this time.

This article originally appeared in The Washington examiner.