Nyerda electric vehicle propaganda – do they valid that?

Nyerda gave the Following numbers For New York based on this reference:

In 2024, New York saw 90,221 new EV records, which brought the total number of EV drivers to more than 271,000 at the beginning of 2025. The EV record in 2023 totaled 78,950, which means that 2024 saw a jump of 14.3 % in the adoption of electric vehicles in New York in New York. State.

Of the new EVs recorded in the state of New York, 54,664 were electrical battery models and 35,557 were plug -in electric electric vehicles^[2]. Battery EVs work completely with electricity, while plug -in hybrids Have a fully electric range of about 20 to 50 miles and an internal combustion engine fed by gasoline that is activated once the battery energy is exhausted.

EV scope numbers

The scope plan is the New York Plan to comply with the mandates of the climatic law. Nyerda hired a contractor who developed a list of control strategies, estimated costs and emission reductions, changed a crank and conjured three “plans” of decarbonization for New York to comply with the calendar of the aspirational climate law. Viability, responsibility and transparency are not valid descriptors of the results produced.

After no little effort I found the projected EV data. Table 1 lists the projected sales of 2024 EV for the three scenarios compared to the observed sales. Scenario 1 (strategic use of low carbon fuels) was the most realistic projection, the other two (accelerated transition far from combustion and beyond 85% reductions) were based on fantasies from the beginning. For our purposes, keep in mind that the sales of battery electric vehicles were 10% lower than the sales of projected hybrid vehicles and plug were 34% lower than stage 1 last year.

Table 1: 2024 NY EV Sales comparison Scope plan versus versus sales observed

The comparison of the strategic use of projections of low fuel scenarios in coals over time shows that 2023 was only the year when observed battery sales exceeded the projections. Sales of hybrid vehicles of the complement exceeded the projections only in the first year.

Table 2: Strategic use of EV sales comparison of low fuel projection in versus versus sales observed

Trends are shown in Figure 1. The project modeling plan that battery electrical sales will increase abruptly in the future. The modeling also projects that complement hybrid sales will reach their maximum point in 2026 and then go out.

Figure 1: Strategic use of EV sales comparison of low fuel projection versus sales observed

Discussion

Try to estimate how each sector will be affected by the changes in the use of energy and the fuels in the modeling sponsored by the Nyerda for the implementation of the climatic law is a massive effort. The additional effort required to completely document reduction strategies, expected emissions changes and costs for each strategy, without a doubt, led to the decision not to provide sufficient information for a significant review of interested parties. Conveniently, lack of transparency means that interested parties have difficulty asking shameful questions. However, the state of New York is proposing a complete transformation of all facets of the State’s energy system at a probable cost of more than one billion dollars, so in my opinion, the lack of integral documentation is unacceptable.

Trying to verify the projections of the observations scope is difficult. Given these results, the obfuscation is probably deliberate. In 2024, sales of the electric vehicle battery were 10% less than projected. This is not a good result since the projection was done three years ago. The projects that sales will increase rapidly by 2026 and beyond. Keep in mind that complement hybrids are not good enough for the aspiration of zero emissions in New York, so modeling projects that sales will reach their maximum point and turn off.

My problem with modeling results is that they are too convenient. I am convinced that projections simply interporate between the objectives of the climatic law and the current conditions to quantify vehicle sales. The justification that drives sales is not documented. Why does the State expect sales of electric vehicles to increase as projected?

Until Trump paused The program there was a federal mandate that said that all vehicles sold on a certain date will be electric. All mandates and incentives for manufacturers are unsuccessful if the public says no thanks. In this case there is no evidence that there is an accumulated demand for electric vehicles as shown in the result that Ford lost $ 5.1 billion in 2024 and $ 4.7 billion in its electric vehicle business. Common sense says that the projected sales trajectory is an illusion.

Conclusion

The sales of New York electric vehicles do not comply with the necessary projections to comply with the mandates of the climatic law. Nyerda reports describing “record sales” do not bother to mention that fact. The lack of evidence that the emission reduction plan of the electric vehicle transport sector will work is one more reason why the state of New York needs to stop the process and determine if the plans are feasible before more money is wasted . I suspect that this is a universal problem for all similar initiatives. No number of joyful record statements can hide the facts much longer.

Roger Caiazza Bloguea on New York Energy and Environmental Affairs in Pragmatic environmentalist from New York. This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of its previous employers or any other company with which it has been associated.