The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally leaked its full assessment of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget online just hours before she spoke. The report, the economic and fiscal outlookIt was briefly available before being removed, although it is normally only published after the Chancellor finishes her statement in Parliament.
OBR acknowledges leak before budget
Reeves began his speech by pointing out that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally released its budget analysis prematurely. He told MPs: “This is deeply disappointing and a serious mistake on their part.
“The Office of Budget Responsibility has already made a statement taking full responsibility for its failure to comply.”
UK gambling tax to rise in budget
The leak revealed an important detail. The gaming industry is expected to see a significant tax increase, which is expected to generate £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) by 2029-2030. According to the OBR, “a number of changes to gaming rights have been announced in the Budget which are overall estimated to raise £1.1bn by 2029-30.”
This includes a sharp increase in the remote gaming tax “from 21 to 40 percent” from April 2026, and the creation of a new 25 percent general tax on online gambling from April 2027. The document confirms that “self-service betting terminals, spread betting, group betting and horse racing” will be exempt. The bingo tax will be eliminated from its current rate of 10 percent.
“The Government has also announced a freeze on casino gaming slots in 2026-27 at the usual RPI. [retail price index – inflation] improve from then on.”
The news affected the game’s stock almost immediately. At 12:45 GMT, Ladbrokes owner Entain had fallen 2.9% to 725.60p, while evoke plc, formerly 888 Holdings, had fallen 12.4% to 32.75p.
Data restrictions.
The foreword emphasizes that while officials engaged constructively, there were limitations, stating: “Policy cost information on the direct fiscal effects of some measures was received late and without sufficient detail.”
More broadly, the OBR says the economic outlook has become “more challenging and uncertain”, with real GDP growth now expected to reach just 1 per cent this year and inflation projected to peak at 3.7 per cent in mid-2025. Debt is expected to remain close to 96 per cent of GDP throughout the forecast period, and the tax burden is on track to hit a record 37.7 per cent of GDP in 2027-28.
Even with the leak, the report confirms that the government is still following its fiscal rules, but only just. The OBR points out that the buffer against the fiscal mandate is just £9.9bn in 2029-2030, calling it “a third of the average” that chancellors have kept in reserve since 2010.
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Post-OBR leak exposes gambling tax hikes and errors hours before Reeves’ budget speech first appeared on ReadWrite.
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