The Mediterranean basin is designated as a hot climate change point area due to extreme climatic events that were observed in recent decades and are expected to be persisting in the 21street century. Future warming rates are expected in the Mediterranean basin to be twenty percent higher than the global average, reaching a fifty percent increase in the summer months. This temperature increase can lead to an increase in the occurrence of warm spells combined with drought, which can have a harmful socio -ecological and ecological impact on the Mediterranean basin.
Research published in the magazine Climate climate and extremesdirected by Professor Eva Paton and the graduate student Johannes Vogel of the Technical University of Berlin together with their colleagues professor Axel Bronstert of the University of Potsdam and Dr. Valentin Aich of the Potsdam Institute for the Climate Impact Research, quantified and studied the Impact of the impact of the impact of the impact impact impact. Number of spells and comprehensive warm droughts in the last forty years in the Mediterranean basin. The appearance of drought and heat waves in the same place at the same time was defined as a climate event composed in this study.
The research team studied ends compound ends and ends compound events throughout the year (disonance), which were intense in relation to the time of the year. The heat spell was defined using a peak threshold approach on the threshold, while the drought was defined using two indexes, the standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.
In the last forty years (1979 to 2018) in the Mediterranean basin a significant increase in the occurrence of the warm station and the composite events was found (1979 to 2018) in the Mediterranean basin. Composite events of warm climate increased constantly compared to discouraged events. The Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Macedonia del Norte) exhibited the greatest increase in composite events, followed by Italy, Morocco, France and Spain. “This is consistent with the previous findings that indicate that temperatures in the hot tail, for example, the highest percentiles, increase much faster than the average temperature, up to 6 ° C for the average heating of 1.5 ° C due To surface moisture and atmospheric feedback in the Mediterranean basin, “said main author Johannes Vogel.
Together with the change in the occurrence of composite events, Professor Paton and his team also investigated whether either individual components led the composite events. An annual growth rate of about four percent for the discovered compound events was observed, along with a higher rate of warm spells. The change in the incidence of drought was uncertain since it varied depending on the applied definition. In total, this study confirmed that changes in the occurrence of drought in the region were not due to the change in precipitation, but were due to the increase in evapotranspiration led by warm hunger.
The researchers also investigated the temporary distribution of these composite events and identified the largest number of compound events of a warm season that occurred in July and August. Constonated compound events increased more in February, May and June. The warm spell of the warm season was maximum in August, and the warm disastrived warm spells were maximum in April. The warm season drought based on evapotranspiration was maximum in July, and the drought based on the evapotranspiration disseminated increased in every month, except in March and November.
This study has corroborated previous findings that the extreme compound climate events of the drought and warm spells have occurred in the last forty years in the Mediterranean and they are probable that they will increase. These composite events are caused by warm spells, which lead to drought. Johannes Vogel emphasized that: “At the end of spring, compound events, which are extremes for that time of year, are increasing. This is worrying because this is a crucial agricultural phase. This highlights the importance of considering such events, which could be lost if only the absolute ends of one year are investigated. ” adequate risks in the region.
Newspaper reference:
Vogel, Johannes, Eva Paton, Valentin Aich and Axel Bronstert. “Increased spells and warm droughts compounds in the Mediterranean basin.” Climate climate and extremes 32 (2021): 100312. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312
About the author
Johannes Vogel, M.Sc.
Graduated student
Johannes Vogel has a degree in Environmental Sciences at Oldenburg University and a Master in Global Change Ecology at Bayreuth University. Since 2018 he has been a member of the Ecohydrology working group at the Technical University of Berlin and part of the postgraduate school “Natural Dangers and Risks in a changing world (Natriskchege)” located at the University of Potsdam. In your pH.D. Thesis, investigates how compound spells and droughts have been developed in the Mediterranean basin in recent decades and evaluates the impacts of these events composed of the productivity and phenology of ecosystems in the region.
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