Guest comment for Robert Hart, Kerry EmanuelAND Bosart lance
The National Meteorological Service (NWS) and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), offers notable value to taxpayers. This efficiency can be demonstrated by its enormous return on investment. For example, the NWS costs only several dollars per citizen to operate every year, however, it results academic and the academic research community.
Recent NWS initiatives have climate and ocean observations and forecasts connected even more directly to emergency preparation and public impact. To cite a 2019 study referred to below, “the Association with the NWS has revolutionized this EMOs emergency management community reacts to events to one that is prepared and maintained proactively ahead of extreme events.” The social benefits of reasonably predict the future cannot be underestimated, and such prediction and resulting benefits were unimaginable only 75 years ago.
Critical investments financed by taxpayers in recent decades have led to enormously improved climate prognosis models, ocean observations, soil, airplanes and space, and theoretical understanding through scientific research. All these have had a huge impact on lives and property. The associated critical forecasts and watches and the warnings we see every day on television, internet or telephone applications could not be possible without NOAA and the NWS. It is estimated that the fiscal income generated by the private sector using data and services NAAA easily pays for the total cost of the NWS.
Those who remember the meteorological forecasts of the 1970s to the 1980s can appreciate these dramatic evolutionary improvements given how those lower forecasts were compared with today. Returning back, the hurricanes of earth in the first half of that century often came without prior notice. If you read the pages of the morning newspapers of September 7, 1900 or September 21, 1938, you will discover that historical and catastrophic events are not mentioned about to develop only hours later. This would be unthinkable today given the scientific investments we have paid.
These mass improvements extend beyond the prognosis and preparation of snow storms (and also snowstorm). Tornado warning delivery time has also significantly improved during the same period of time. Tornado victims rates have not increased despite a very rapid increase in the population. At least, hundreds of thousands of people are alive today that would not be without our investments in NOAA and NWS.
The advent of the business weather forecast, together with the increase in the preparation that allows, remains a historical achievement not only of this country but of the human race. There are few other fields in the sciences in which a skilled prediction has not only had an immense impact on our society, but is even possible. We should be extraordinarily proud of this achievement.
The current expulsion of the mainly younger employees of NOAA without cause and with a disturbing warning is cruel to them personally and professionally. Younger employees are the future of any organization, government or other, and bring unique energy, skills and ideas. Every government organization must strive to be more efficient, and must be subject to careful supervision, since taxpayers financing is precious and entrusts the government by the government. However, the wise supervision instrument is the scalpel, not the chainsaw. The recent apparently arbitrary and capricious reductions, especially made without supervision of the Congress, are seriously putting the future of the country and, in general, the property and lives of hundreds of millions of families who pay taxes that have invested in these truly notable achievements for many decades.
References:
“Evolving the National Meteorological Service to build a nation ready for the climate: connect
Observations, forecasts and warnings to decision makers through the impact -based decision
Support services ”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, October 2019.
“Using decision support services based on the impact of the National Meteorological Service to prepare for
Extreme Winter Storms“, Journal of Emergency Management, November/December 2019.
“Decision support services based on impact (IDSS) and socio -economic impacts of winter storms”,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, May 2020.
“Communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis (COFU) 2: Replication and extension of a United States survey
The sources, perceptions, uses and public values for weather information. “ American
Study of the Policy Program of the Meteorological Society, September 2024.
“The social value of hurricane forecasts” SSRN Journal, December 2024.
