A new evaluation warns that if the average earth temperature reaches 2 degrees C on the pre -industrial average, generalized areas can be too hot during extreme heat events so that many people survive without artificial cooling.
The document finds that during wet heat waves, the areas too hot for health . The areas that will threaten those over 60, that are more vulnerable, will increase to approximately 35% of the land mass of the planet.
The paper It was just published In the newspaper Magazines of Nature Earth and Environment.
Last year was the first calendar year with an average global temperature of more than 1.5 degrees C above the pre -industrial average. In the middle or end of the 21st century they could reach 2 degrees in the mid -or end of the 21st century.
“It is likely that unsurpassed heat thresholds, which until now have only been briefly overcome for older adults in the most popular regions on Earth, it is likely to arise even for younger adults,” said principal author Tom Matthews of the King’s College London. “Under such conditions, prolonged outdoor exposure, even for those in the shade, subject to a strong and well hydrated breeze, it would be expected to cause a lethal heat stroke.”
This document is based on previous work, asking “what if?” “What happens if we have underestimated the more hot and humid could the worst future events be?” saying Radley HortonProfessor of Columbia Climate School, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of the school, and co-author of the article.
Horton co -authored a 2017 article that predicts that potentially fatal heat and humidity combinations could begin to emerge later in this century, then a 2020 study that shows that they were already appearing in places for short periods.
For evaluation, the team gathered scientific findings to link the science of physical climate with the risk of heat mortality. The analysis analyzed what they called “non -compensable” thresholds, beyond which the body temperature of the human core increases without control and the “unsurpassed” thresholds, where the core temperature increases to 42 C in six hours.
Between 1994 and 2023, non -compensable thresholds, where the combination of temperature and humidity makes the human body faced, was violated by approximately 2% of the global earth’s surface for adults under 60 years. More than 20% of the earth’s surface crossed this threshold of this threshold for older adults. While non -compensable thresholds have been passed for all ages, so far insurmountable thresholds have only briefly passed for older adults.
If the levels reach 4 to 5 degrees above the pre -industrial, older adults could experience non -compensable heat in around 60% of the earth during extreme events. At this level of heating, insufficient heat would also begin to emerge as a threat to younger adults in the most popular subtropical regions.
Certain regions are at more risk of crossing unpaid and insurmountable critical thresholds, with people in sub -Saharan Africa and southern Asia in the shooting line.
“As more of the planet experiences too hot outdoor conditions for our physiology, it will be essential that people have reliable access to colder environments to protect themselves from heat,” Matthews said.
Since 2000, there have been more than 260,000 deaths related to heat in the most mortal heat events. The three most mortal events of the 21st century caused collectively almost 200,000 deaths, including approximately 72,000 in Europe during 2003, another 62,000 in Europe in 2022 and the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed around 56,000.
The study also involved researchers at the University of California, Stanford University, the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies and the Boston University.
Adapted from a press release from King’s College London.
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