Cliff mass
The same tragedy has happened again and again.
An excellent prediction of a great threat related to the weather is not heard, which leads to mass destruction and loss of lives.
We need to do better. We can do better.
This blog will discuss the problem and how it could be addressed.
There are numerous examples in this fault mode; Let me provide only a few.
Hurricane Katrina, 2005
In 2005, the land of Hurricane Katrina near New Orleans resulted in 1400 deaths and $ 125 billion in damages. Excellent forecasts by the National Meteorological Service and weather models.
Local governments did not take the forecasts seriously and did not evacuate vulnerable populations. The poorly designed dikes failed.
Wildfires, 2025
Forest fires in Los Angeles led to 30 deaths and at least 100 billion in damages. The meteorological forecasts of the strong and dry winds of Santa Ana of the models were incredibly good and the National Meteorological Service took out an apocalyptic prognosis (see below)
Electrical companies could not dispede the electricity lines, and local governments could not prepare fire fighting and they had emptied a critical deposit, to appoint only some of the mistakes made.
Maui Wildfire, 2023
The weather forecast models emphasized that there would be a wind storm of the important descending slope in the area around Lahaina. The National Meteorological Service had a warning of Flag Red for the sides reads the islands, but did not identify the particular threat to Lahaina.
After the fire began, the local response was very problematic, he did not keep the fire when they thought it was out, he blocked the travel routes and did not facilitate an effective evaluation.
Hurricane Helene (2024)
The strong rainfall and flooding of this storm resulted in 250 deaths and almost 80 billion dollars in damage. The heavy rains that reach up to 30 inches led to catastrophic floods. NOAA/NWS forecast models did an excellent job by predicting the path of hurricanes and heavy rains (see below).
The National Meteorological Service presented very strong warnings (see below), but the lack of communication and the critical evacuations of the threatened areas led to a great loss of lives.
Texas floods (2025)
As documented in my previous blog and in many other sources, the National Meteorological Service provided timely warnings, but local communities lacked the warning capacity to effectively eliminate Harm’s Way people. In addition, vulnerable camp facilities were located in threatened flood plains.
It could easily provide many other cases of excellent forecasts, but the lack of an adequate response, which leads to unnecessary massive deaths and economic losses.
Why are we in this fault mode? How can it be solved?
First, it should be recognized that weather prediction has become immensely more skilled in the last 30 years.
The combination of much more skilled global models plus high -resolution prediction capabilities has turned out that meteorologists can now forecast dangerous conditions with great skill in advance.
For example, huge improvements in hurricane track forecasts (see below)
Heavy rain skill through the NOAA/NWS meteorate prediction? Uploading rapidly (see 1 inch skill below)
Secondly, it should be recognized that our ability to observe what is happening in real time is immensely better due to much more complete observations.
Improved weather radars and new massive satellite assets provide meteorologists and others an extraordinary knowledge of what is happening …
With better observations and predictions, meteorologists, hydrologists and others in NOAA and other government agencies are in a much better position to provide a processable orientation to save lives and properties.
Third, with this knowledge, local and state governments, in concert with the federal government, must assume responsibility for using the improved prognosis capabilities to save lives and properties.
This means better communications for the public, better warning systems, better planning for adverse conditions and more.
We can radically reduce deaths and losses due to storms and adverse climate by recognizing the extraordinary potential of improved observations and forecasts, and then applying this information to warn and protect our communities.
What should we not do? Culing climate change or political parties that you don’t like.
Climate change has only a very small impact on the intensity of extreme climate (there is a very strong science to support this statement). Push the weather as the origin of these extremes leads to inaction in real problems. Even if climate change were important, adaptation can save most of the lives.
Both political parties have been in power as this situation has feast. This is a totally bipartisan problem. The name of name and guilt will lead to inaction and more deaths.
Total meaningless.
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