Another day, another Future Climate Doom model, are we going with that?

From Institute of Basic Sciences And the “We All Gonna Die” department comes episode #2971 of the Madness model through the press release:

The future climate of the Earth 9 km from world resolution

Global warming does not affect our planet uniformly. Some areas, such as the Arctic Region or high mountain peaks, heat faster than the global average, while others, including large parts of the tropical oceans, show reduced temperature trends compared to the average. The heterogeneity of future rain patterns is even more pronounced. To adapt to future climate change, policy formulators and interested parties need detailed regional climate information, often in much smaller scales than the typical resolution (~ 100-200 km) of the climatic models used in the reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC).

A team of scientists from the Center for Climate Physics of the SIBS (ICCP), the National University of Pusan in South Korea and the Alfred Wegener Institute, the Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany has achieved an important rupture in climate modeling, which provides uncomfortable roads to the future climate and its variability. His research was published in the open access magazine Earth System Dynamics.

Using the AWI-CM3 Earth system model, a new iterative global modeling protocol and two of the fastest supercomputers in South Korea (ALEPH at the Basic Science and Guru Institute in the Korean weather administration), researchers have simulated climate change at 9 km scale in the atmosphere and 4-25 km in the ocean. These extensive simulations of computer models offer a more precise representation of future climatic conditions, allowing better planning for climate adaptation.

The high resolution model AWI-CM3 precisely represents the global climate, including small-scale phenomena, such as rains in mountainous regions, coastal climate processes and islanders, hurricanes and oceanic turbulence (Fig. 1). When solving more regional details and its interactions with the large -scale atmosphere and oceanic circulations, the model demonstrates higher performance compared to most low -resolution climatic models.

A main product of simulations is a set of detailed global maps of expected climate change (for example, temperature, rain, winds, ocean currents, etc.) for an anticipated 1^EITHERC Future Global Calenting.

“It is important to keep in mind that global warming is spatially quite heterogeneous. For 1^EITHERC Increased global temperature, the Siberian and Canadian Arctic will heat up in approximately 2^EITHERC, while the Arctic Ocean will experience heating up to 5^EITHERC. In the regions of the high mountains, such as the Himalayas, the Andes and the Hindu Kush, the model simulates an acceleration of 45-60% in relation to the global average, ”says Moon Ja-Yeon of ICCP, and the author leaders the study.Fig. 2). Normalized climate change data for a global heating level of 1 ° C can be downloaded and opened directly in the Google Earth application. These data can provide information on the expected future changes in climatic variables, such as wind and clouds, which are relevant to the future deployment of wind or solar farms, respectively.

“Our study also highlights the regional impacts of the main modes of climatic variability, such as the oscillation of Madden Julian, the oscillation of the North Atlantic and the oscillation of El Niño-Sur, as well as its response to the greenhouse heating,” says Professor Thomas Jung of Awi and co-closure of the author of the study. According to AWI-CM3 simulations, the amplitude of both, the oscillation of Madden Julian and the alternative events of El Niño and the girl will increase in the future, which will lead to intensified rainfall in the affected regions. The simulations also indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rain events (> 50 mm/day) in areas such as East Asia, Himalaya, Andes, Amazonia, Mountains in Africa and the East Coast of North America with significant implications for floods, erosion and landslides.

“Most Global Climate Models used in the Assessment Reports of the ipcc are too coarse to Resolve Small Islands, Such As Those In The Western Tropical Pacific. BeSe Islands Are Already Threatened by Global Sea Level Rise. Into What before regions study.

Study findings offer critical information to assess climatic risks and implement adaptation measures on regional scales.

Magazine: Dynamics of the Earth System

DOI/Link: 10.5194/ESD-16-1103-2025