The Logistics of the Panama Canal is at the mercy of the weather and the weather

Maybe it is a favorite sweater or the device you are using, something you have used, maintained or eaten most likely to go through the Panama Canal. The channel of approximately 82 kilometers long that connects the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea (and, ultimately, the Atlantic Ocean) has been an important global shipping artery since it opened in 1914. This year, the relevance of the channel He has been pushed to the political focus such as President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have expressed his desire for the United States to claim the property.

In recent years, the Operation of the Panama Canal has been increasingly affected by the changes in the rain, and some data suggest that there are more changes in the way. Delays and reductions in traffic caused by these events impair a more volatile future for the shipping route in case the climate change alters periodic climate patterns.

The Panama Canal is built around a lock system. Ships, ranging from private property to gigantic See them from Neopanamax Able to transport more than 13,000 standard load containers, travel three locks to earn approximately 25 meters of elevation and three locks to return to the other side. That process, which takes from 8 to 10 hours, confers huge savings both in time and fuel: the ships that travel from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean or vice versa would take a route around the southern end of South America.

“Five percent of the shipping is crossed by the Panama Canal,” said Mark Russo, director of Sciences of Everstema Analytics, a risk analysis company of the supply chain at ElMhursst, Illinois. “It is a critical artery for global trade.”

Precipitation is key to ensuring that Gatun Lake, the artificial lake that constitutes an important part of the channel, remains complete enough for Neopanamax ships to sail safely without running. The lake loses water not only due to evaporation and deliberate pumping, it supplies part of the drinking water of the region, but also to the operation itself of the channel: every day, around 7 billion liters of water are extracted to supply the locks.

Fortunately, Panama tends to receive many rainfall: on average, more than 2,000 millimeters each year. “Panama is an incredibly wet country,” he said Steven PatonDirector of the Physical Monitoring Program at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama City. But the last 3 decades have included three relatively dry years in the Canal Basin. In the years of water 1998, 2016 and 2024, the rains fell below 1,750 millimeters. (Water years cover the 12 -month period between October 1 and September 30).

The years of water shortage tend to occur approximately once every 2 decades, Patton said, and the relatively adjusted group of the dry years is not precedent in the 144 -year rainfall record of the basin, he added. “We’ve never seen that before.”

Years of shortage

Due to the low water levels in Lake Gatun during those years, the Panama Canal Authority significantly reduced the number of ships that pass through the channel. A total of 11,240 boats crossed the channel in 2024, compared to 14,080 in 2023. The Panama Canal Authority also limited the maximum draft of the ships. Reduction of a draft draft, that is, the depth that is found in the water, the means of elimination of the load, said Russo. Such reorganization takes time and results in longer queues in the locks. “That finally slows the ships that move,” he said.

Researchers have been interested in understanding whether such collisions between the logistics of the supply chain and the climate in the Panama Canal will become more common in the future. Shipping companies Reserve a place in the row on the channel more than a year in advanceSo, such a prospective perspective is important, Russo said. “If you are planning your shipments through the Panama Canal, you can get out of those risks with one year in advance.”

It is not surprising that the three recent years of water shortage in the Panama Canal Basin corresponded to the El Niño years, during which the most warm oceanic water than the average in the Equatorial Pacific unleashes a series of atmospheric effects of dripping that culminate in falling in Central America. Such teleconexions between oceanic and atmospheric processes are nothing new, he said Michael McPhanenA physical oceographer in the NOAA Pacific Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. “This has been happening for millions of years.”

From now on, there is no convincing evidence that climate change is altering the frequency of the cycle between El Niño and its conversation, known as the girls. That cycle, which lasts from 2 to 7 years, is known as the oscillation the child -sur (Enso). Recent research showed that the 2024 precipitation observed in Panama was consistent with the Enso and It could not be attributed conclusively for the effects of climate change.

The Great becomes bigger

What is changing as the planet heats up is the intensity of the great storms. “Strong events are strengthening,” said McPhaden. During the recent instrumental record, there has been a 10% increase in the intensity of the storm, and the modeling suggests that another 10% increase may occur during the next century, he said. “We will see more frequent events in the future potentially.”

Although having more rain in the Panama Canal Basin may seem like a blessing to send traffic, there is too much precipitation. In 2010, record rain temporarily caused a complete closure of the Panama Canal. The problem was the rapid water level increase in Lake Gatun, which threatened to exceed a land dam between the lake and the Chagres river. “You never want to fly over a dirt dam because it begins to erode exponentially,” Patton said. The crews worked 24 hours a day to divert the water, but the lake still crawled 1 meter from the upper part of the dam.

Efforts are being made to better understand the hydrology of the Panama Canal Basin. Such work could help channel managers to accelerate the shipping route against future climate -based events such as 1998, 2010, 2016 and 2024. An example is the Water Health ProjectDirected by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, which studies the forest cover in the region. Forests act like sponges, absorb rain and release it in a controlled way. That is key to guaranteeing reasonably constant water at Lake Gatun, Patton said. “We know that the forest cover is critical.”

Although the tests of the dry year last year are still fresh in the minds of many people, there is also a sense of optimism at this time that 2025 will be a good year for ship traffic through the Panama Canal, the levels of Current water in Gatun Lake are the highest. ‘ I have been in the last 5 years.

—Katherine Kornei (@Katherinekornei), Scientific writer

February 13, 2025: This article has been updated to correct the name of a source.

Citation: Kornei, K. (2025), the Logistics of the Panama Canal is at the mercy of the weather and the weather, EOS, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025o250057. Posted on February 12, 2025.

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC -nd 3.0
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