Thanks for this excellent article.
Gavin says: “I do not have much information about why this is happening, but I could have some clues about the drivers of recent anomalies.” End of the year, but before starting the summaries of 2024, how do you see 2025? Predictions are based on the long -term trend plus an anomaly based on predicted in the DJ period. ” https://bsky.app/profile/climateofgavin.bsky.social/post/3lemrq6jgcs2j
Keep in mind that Gavin’s chart does not even show temperatures breaking the anomaly line +1.5c in 2025. Will it cool? We will have to wait another year to find out, once again. The same as every year.
And previously he has reported: “Gavin schmidt@climateofgavin.bsky.Social 21d
“Royal long -term climatic trends are being driven by a set of complex human and natural promoters that do not have the obligation to follow their simplistic formulas.”
https://bsky.app/profile/climateofgavin.bsky.social/post/3ldtuvcql3k2s
Excellent.
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Summary of information about the climate crisis
1. Accelera increase the global temperature:
Global temperatures in 2025 are starting alarmingly high, with temperatures of the oceanic surface already +0.25 ° C warmer than in 2023.
The heat content of the ocean (OHC) increased by 2024, adding approximately 15 zettajulios (ZJ) of heat to the oceans. This is equivalent to an energy release of 3.4 Hiroshima pumps per square mile of open waters, an amazing amount.
2. Decrease in the energy imbalance of the albedo and the earth (EEI):
Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) has decreased significantly and amplifying energy absorption. Dr. James Hansen’s analysis is equivalent to an increase of more than 100 ppm in the CO₂ concentration.
The decrease in Albedo, together with greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), has accelerated EEI, intensifying heating trends beyond what climate models predicted.
3. Oceanic and ice dynamics:
Despite a strong child in 2024, which generally releases the heat of the Pacific, the oceans have continued to absorb and retain heat.
The deleted ice cooling effect, which absorbs significant heat as latent energy, is being overwhelmed by other heating forces. Only Greenland has lost 6,000 billion tons of ice from 2002 to 2024.
It is projected that the oceans will heat even more in 2025, indicating a persistent imbalance.
4. Bosque carbon sink failures:
Terrestrial carbon sinks, including forests, are failing. In 2023, forests absorbed much less CO₂, with some regions (for example, Finland) that become net carbon emitters. This reversal has denied decades of emission reduction efforts worldwide.
5. Climate models and variables not captured:
The observed heating (+1.6 ° C on the beginning by 2024) has overcome the projections by conventional climatic models, exposing significant gaps:
The models fail to completely capture the variations of Albedo and the impacts of ice interactions.
The cooling effects of the girl’s cycles have not materialized as predicted.
Hansen’s projections anticipated these fast temperature anomalies, in contrast to the risks underestimated in IPCC models.
6. The illusion of “net zero”:
The failure of natural carbon sinks and the increase in energy use emissions (for example, burning coal and oil) make the “net zero” objective more and more unattainable.
This underlines the insufficiency of current mitigation strategies to address the systemic and accelerated nature of the climatic crisis.
7. Implications for the future:
With the oceans heating relentlessly, a “monster” the child can arise, exacerbating global temperatures even more.
Hansen warns about a decadal acceleration in the heating driven by the forcing of the aerosol climate and the non -resolved ocean ocean dynamics.
The scientific community is dealing with models that cannot explain sudden changes, forcing a reevaluation of predictions and strategies.
8. Call the action:
The evidence suggests that we are entering a catastrophic phase of climate change, driven by the composition of feedback loops and systemic failures. Immediate and unprecedented action is required to address the Earth’s energy imbalance and stop a greater degradation of natural climatic shock absorbers. And yet nothing is said, nothing is happening. There is no global leadership for the action of any kind.
AI Chatgtp maybe weak when calculating the modeling data of the weather and Enso, but it is excellent in updated summaries of what it is. If you use it well.
#Realclimate #retrospective
