The Week That Was: 2025-06-07 (June 7, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels…If it is consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus.”1— Michael Crichton, Aliens Cause Global Warming, Caltech Michelin Lecture (Jan. 17, 2003) [H/t Richard Lindzen and William Happer]
Number of the Week: 430.51 ppm
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins by reproducing a four-page report from Richard Lindzen and William Happer on Gold Standard Science. It continues with a discussion of a new pamphlet by the Global Warming Policy Foundation on the Net Zero Straitjacket followed by an essay on Outlawing Fossil Fuels by Bruce Everett and Gordon Tomb. David Middleton discusses the California Duck. Roger Caiazza discusses a new report by the New York independent system operator (NYISO). TWTW concludes with a report on COVID 19, demonstrating why the scientific method is important in fields beyond pure physical science.
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Gold Standard Science: On May 27, 2025, The CO2 Coalition posted a report by Richard Lindzen Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus
Massachusetts Institute of Technology and William Happer Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University, on how scientific knowledge is determined titled “Gold Standard Science.” The report describes the scientific method. It states (emphasis in original, no italics added):
Begin Quote:
II. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE IS DETERMINED BY THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD, VALI DATING THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS WITH OBSERVATIONS, NOT BY GOVERNMENT OPINION, CONSENSUS, 97% OF SCIENTISTS’ OPINIONS, PEER REVIEW, MODELS THAT DO NOT WORK, OR CHERRY-PICKED, FABRICATED, FALSIFIED OR OMITTED CONTRADICTORY DATA
- Scientific Knowledge is Determined by the Scientific Method
As scientists, we totally agree with the Supreme Court: “‘scientific knowledge’ … must be derived by the scientific method.” Daubert v. Merrell Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 593 (1993).
What is the scientific method? Prof. Richard Feynman, a Nobel Laureate in Physics, provided an incisive definition:
“[W]e compare the result of [a theory’s] computation to nature, … compare it directly with observations, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.” The Character of Physical Law (1965), p. 150.
Agreement with observations is the measure of scientific truth. Scientific progress proceeds by the interplay of theory and observation. Theory explains observations and makes predictions of what will be observed in the future. Observations anchor understanding and weed out the theories that do not work. This has been the scientific method for more than four hundred years.
In short, “Progress often involves the killing of an exquisite theory by an ugly fact.” Leon Lederman, a Nobel Laureate in Physics, The God Particle (1993), p. 256.
Historically, it is helpful to understand how 400 years ago the scientific method was invented and how it differed fundamentally from other common methods of thinking:
The scientific method “is a vehement and passionate interest in the relation of general principles to irreducible and stubborn facts. All the world over and at all times there have been practical men, absorbed in ‘irreducible and stubborn facts;’ all the world over and at all times there have been men of philosophic temperament who have been absorbed in the weaving of general principles. It is this union of passionate interest in the detailed facts with equal devotion to abstract generalization which forms the novelty in our present society.” Alfred North Whitehead, Science and the Modern World (1925), p. 3.
Also, by contrast, the scientific method totally differs from a method of analysis that is commonly used in climate science as shown below: ignoring contradictory facts and science and changing the facts to support a theory so it is not rejected. Both are egregious violations of the scientific method.
It is astounding that one of the most complex questions in physics (namely, the behavior of a multi-phase, radiatively active, turbulent fluid) should be labeled by the government — and funding agencies it controls — to be so settled that skeptics are silenced. The models supporting the climate-crisis narrative make predictions that utterly fail to match the observations of what they purport to predict. This failure means in science they should never be used. Unfortunately, this peculiar situation is particularly dangerous because many world leaders have abandoned the science and intellectual rigor bequeathed to us by the Enlightenment and its forebears.
Thus, the scientific method is very simple and very profound. Does the theory work with observations? If not, it is rejected and not used.
B. Scientific Knowledge is Not Determined By Unscientific Sources
1. Government Opinion
Nobel physicist Richard Feynman put it unambiguously:
“No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles.” [1]
The importance of the scientific principle that government does not determine science was chillingly underscored in Russia under Stalin and recently in Sri Lanka.
In Russia, Stalin made Trofim Lysenko the czar of Russian biology and agriculture. His false biology, which rejected well-established genetic science, prevailed for 40 years in the Soviet Union because Lysenko gained dictatorial control, providing one of the most thoroughly documented and horrifying examples of the politicization of science. Lysenko was strongly supported by “scientists” who benefitted from his patronage. Millions died because of his ruthless campaign against genetic science in agriculture.[2]
Recently in Sri Lanka, one of us (Happer) explained:
“Ideologically driven government mandates on agriculture have usually led to disaster…The world has just witnessed the collapse of the once bountiful agricultural sector of Sri Lanka as a result of government restrictions on mineral [nitrogen] fertilizer.” [3]
2. Consensus and 97% of Scientists’ Opinions
What is correct in science is not determined by consensus, and 97% of scientist’s opinions [4], but by experiment and observations. Historically, the consensus of scientists has often turned out to be wrong. Many of the greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with consensus. To quote the profoundly true observation of Michael Crichton:
“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels…If it is consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus.” [5]
In science, however, consensus and 97% of scientists’ opinions are not the test. The test is the scientific method, testing theory with observations, and rejecting theories not validated by observations.
3. Peer Review
Peer review can be helpful in many areas of science, but it does not determine scientific validity.
In our decades of personal experience in the field, we have been dismayed that many distinguished scientific journals now have editorial boards that further the agenda of climate-change alarmism rather than objective science. Research papers with scientific findings contrary to the dogma of climate calamity are commonly rejected by peer reviewers, many of whom fear that their research funding will be cut if any doubt is cast on the looming climate catastrophe. Journal editors have been fired for publishing papers that go against the party line of the climate-alarm establishment.[6]
We also have been dismayed by the trillions of dollars that have been spent on one-sided research predicting catastrophic climate change. Dr. Harold Lewis, a distinguished physics professor, bluntly described this reality:
“The global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it … has corrupted so many scientists … It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.” [7]
Peer-reviewed climate science publications should not be viewed as reliable science and do not determine scientific validity. All must be ultimately tested by the scientific method and rejected if their theories are not validated by observations.
4. Models That Do Not Work
Models are a type of theory; they predict physical observations. The scientific method requires models to be tested by observations to see if they work. If a model’s prediction disagrees with observations of what it purports to predict, it is wrong and never used as science. The models supporting the climate-crisis narrative simply do not align with observations of the phenomena they are supposedly designed to predict. Instead, they consistently overestimate the warming effect of CO2 emissions, often predicting two or three times more warming than has been observed, detailed below.
5. Cherry-Picked, Fabricated, Falsified or Omitted Contradictory Data
Since theories are tested with observations, fabricating data, falsifying data, and omitting contradictory facts to make a theory work is an egregious violation of the scientific method.[8]
Richard Feynman stated this fundamental principle of the scientific method:
“If you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid – not only what you think is right about it…. Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them.” [9]
In Albert Einstein’s words: “The right to search for truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.” [10]
One of us (Lindzen) observes: “Misrepresentation, exaggeration, cherry-picking, or outright lying pretty much covers all the so-called evidence” marshalled in support of the Net Zero Theory.[11]
In summary, scientific knowledge is determined by the scientific method, testing theory with observations, not by government opinion, consensus, peer review or cherry-picked, fabricated, falsified or omitting contradictory data.
[1] Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All p. 57 (1998).
[2] William Happer, Chapter 1, Michael Gould. Politicizing Science pp. 29–35 (2003).
[3] William Happer, et al., Nitrous Oxide and Climate, CO2 Coalition (Nov. 10, 2022), p. 39 (emphasis added).
[4] Importantly, note the 97% number is false. “The figure of 97% is entirely discredited.” Andrew Montford, Fraud, Bias and Public Relations: The 97% Consensus’ and its Critics, Global Warming Policy Foundation (2014), p. 12.
[5] Michael Crichton, Aliens Cause Global Warming, Caltech Michelin Lecture (Jan. 17, 2003).
[6] Richard Lindzen, Climate of Fear, Wall Street Journal (Apr. 12, 2006).
[7] Harold Lewis, October 6, 2010, resignation letter to the American Physical Society.
[8] David Goodstein, On Fact and Fraud p. 135 (2010). “Fabrication is making up data or results,” “falsification is … changing or omitting data or results.”
[9] Richard Feynman, Surely, You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! pp. 311–312 (1985).
[10] Albert Einstein, The Ultimate Quotable Einstein p. 480 (2010).
[11] Richard Lindzen, Global Warming for the Two Cultures, Global Warming Policy Foundation 10 (2018).
End Quote
SEPP strongly endorses the scientific method as described here, and TWTW constantly tries to adhere to its principles. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Net Zero Straitjacket: The Global Warming Policy Foundation published a pamphlet by Harry Wilkinson in which he warned the UK public:
“The public has been misled about the costs and consequences of Net Zero. This report shines a light on the reality: a deeply authoritarian agenda that increases the cost of living for everyone.”
The executive summary of the pamphlet states:
“No one can be in any doubt that Net Zero will be incredibly expensive. Estimates for the total capital cost range widely, from £1.4 trillion (Climate Change Committee), to £3 trillion (National Grid), or even as high as £6–10 trillion (Net Zero Watch). The Energy Technologies Institute has suggested that the cost of decarbonizing housing alone could be up to £2 trillion.”
The costs of Net Zero are increasing, and states and countries that impose such policies cannot deliver the reliable, affordable electricity required by modern civilization. This ongoing paralysis is the result of the UN IPCC and its collaborators ignoring the scientific method in its reports since the special report of 1992. “Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment.” As in the “Gold Standard Science” above:
“One of us (Lindzen) observes: ‘Misrepresentation, exaggeration, cherry-picking, or outright lying pretty much covers all the so-called evidence’ marshalled in support of the Net Zero Theory.”
After over 30 years of “‘Misrepresentation, exaggeration, cherry-picking, or outright lying pretty much covers all the so-called evidence” the public has no reason to trust any organization deeply involved in the process. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Outlawing Fossil Fuels: WUWT posted an essay by Bruce Everett and Gordon Tomb explaining that Nature magazine published an article “Carbon Majors and the Scientific Case for Climate Liability,” that:
“tries to further the alarmists’ dream of pinning alleged harms of “extreme” weather on the world’s largest producers of fossil fuels.
Christopher W. Callahan and Justin S. Mankin, both at Dartmouth College when their article was prepared, accept – without substantiation – climate activists’ position that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide cause catastrophic warming and perpetuate the demonization of oil and gas companies as global villains. Instead of casting light on the climate issue, the authors attempt to provide a blueprint for a ‘coming wave of climate legal action’ for which courts are woefully unprepared.’”
Dr. Richard Lindzen, professor emeritus of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has declared such analysis the basis of ‘a quasi-religious movement predicated on an absurd ‘scientific’ narrative.’ Suffice it to say that the many parameters influencing climate are too poorly understood to construct a useful predictive model. Among those factors are changes in Earth’s orbit, fluctuations in solar energy, volcanic emissions, changes in ocean currents and cloud formation.
Second, the authors purport to show that heat waves induced by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide are becoming more severe and frequent without showing a connection between hot weather and CO2 and without having a baseline to establish a trend of greater severity and frequency.
How could they? Earth has been in a beneficial warm period for nearly 12,000 years, but satellite data to track heat waves cover only the last half century and scattered thermometer readings a mere 150 years. The trend for U.S. heat waves has been flat since at least 1890 except for the Dust Bowl period of the 1930s.
The third and fourth steps assume connections – with little or no empirical backup – between changes in global surface temperatures and extreme heat at a regional level and between unusually hot days and per capita income.
The least rigorous of the researchers’ analyses is that of weather’s influence on income. For centuries, economists have tried to understand why per capita income varies from country to country, region to region, year to year and month to month.
Individual income is influenced by culture, geography, demographics, normal weather variations, government policy, war, civil strife, crime, natural disasters of all types, trade, influences from friendly or hostile neighbors, world commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates and consumer sentiment – to name just some variables. To assert that the effect of several hot days on income can be screened from all manner of influences – natural or otherwise – is well beyond any reasonable interpretation of data.
In summary, the authors use unvalidated computer models, opinions and assumptions and specious economic correlations to calculate down to two decimal places a climate liability for Chevron of $1.98 trillion – more than eight times the company’s market capitalization.
The authors ignore the direct benefits of increasing CO2 – mainly an overall greening of Earth and record crop production from the gas’s fertilization effect. Although they note that fossil fuels have ‘produced immense prosperity,’ even that is an understatement. After all, coal, oil and natural gas are largely responsible for sustaining 8 billion people – tenfold the population prior to the Industrial Revolution.”
Some commentators have called electricity the nervous system of modern civilization, if so, fossil fuels can be called the lifeblood of modern civilization. Yet, many intelligent individuals are attempting to destroy both. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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The California Duck: For years, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the grid operator that covers most of California has been warning the public about the California Duck so named because of the shape of the curve showing how fast conventional power must come on line to take over when solar power drops just as the demand increases. Solar produces most of its power around midday but the greatest need for power is in the evening, from about 4 pm to 11 pm. The low-cost batteries that are claimed to solve the problem are yet to appear. Yet the solar capacity has been expanding annually. Add to this the erratic generation from wind and California experiences overgeneration that it must dispatch elsewhere. In May, CAISO total renewable capacity was almost 21,000 MW from solar and 8400 from wind (not counting geothermal, etc.).
Writing in WUWT, David Middleton cites a May study by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) highlighting the California problem that states:
“CAISO is trying to reduce curtailments in several ways:
- Trading with neighboring balancing authorities to try to sell excess solar and wind power
- Incorporating battery storage into ancillary services, energy, and capacity markets
- Including curtailment reduction in transmission planning
In addition, starting this year, companies are planning to use excess renewable energy to make hydrogen, some of which will be stored and mixed with natural gas for summer generation at the Intermountain Power Project’s new facility scheduled to come online in July.” [Boldface added]
According to reports, CAISO does not pay for curtailments of solar generation, but solar capacity continues to increase. TWTW has attempted to uncover how much the public, both US and California pays for excess unneeded California solar generation. The latest estimate it was able to uncover was for 2019 by Ron Miller of Energy Central. He wrote:
“Unknown to the public that in 2019 California curtailed 891,065 MWh of solar/wind which cost federal taxpayers (ITC) $21.92 million and curtailed 1,504,803 MWh in 2021 costing taxpayers $37.02 million.”
Apparently, such information is another government black hole where important information disappears. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Northeast Hole: Also writing in WUWT, Roger Caiazza discusses the new report titled NYISO Power Trends June 2025. NYISO is the independent system operator for New York state. Caiazza writes:
The Fact Sheet, Power Trends Report, and Press Release emphasize a concern about declining reliability margins. The Press Release explains:
“Generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Electrification programs and new large-load customers associated with economic development initiatives are pushing projected demand higher. Together, these forces are also narrowing reliability margins across New York and increasing the risk of future reliability needs.
Recent Power Trend reports have included the declining reliability margins issue. The following figure shows last year’s status compared to this year. The decline in margin is mostly because fossil units are retiring faster than zero emissions replacements are coming on-line.
Again, reliable, affordable electricity is becoming a major problem in New York State because politicians have closed nuclear and coal-fired power plants without regard for reliable, affordable replacements. Empire Wind, the proposed offshore big wind project covering 80,000 acres off the coasts of New York and New Jersey, will not produce reliable, affordable electricity. Offshore wind never has. What would be the occupancy rates in Manhattan if elevators frequently fail?
After wishing that NYISO be more assertive in New York policy matters, Caiazza concludes his report with:
“The Power Trends 2025 report provides an excellent overview of New York State’s power grid and wholesale electricity markets. There are suggestions that the State’s mandate to go to zero emissions is in trouble, Unfortunately, NYISO does not consolidate all the warning signs about Climate Act implementation, nor does it call out state policies that are exacerbating problems.
Ultimately the problem is that New York has no comprehensive energy plan. The Climate Act Scoping Plan is just a list of technologies that describe an electric system that is zero-emissions. However, there is no feasibility study that shows how it will work nor has the Hochul Administration reconciled the differences between the Scoping Plan and NYISO resource outlooks. As it stands now, the Administration plan is to build as many wind and solar facilities as possible and hope someone works out how they are supposed to be integrated into the electric system. When that does not work, I predict the NYISO will be blamed.
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Scientific Method in Other Fields: Ronan Connolly and other members of the CERES-Science team participated in writing “What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?” The subject is out of the scope of TWTW, but the paper illustrates the importance of applying the scientific method in fields such as health. Among the Conclusion and Recommendations are:
“On the Use of Mathematical and Computer Models for Policy Advice
Conclusion 1: Mathematical and computer models can be very powerful tools for evaluating the implications of our current scientific understanding of policy-relevant issues, including epidemic modelling. However, the model output is a consequence of the input assumptions, approximations and data. In the case of COVID-19, it is now apparent that the COVID-19 models that were highly influential on public-health policies (especially in the beginning of the pandemic) were not accurately modelling the real-world progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Recommendation 1: Models should be used as a tool to supplement, not replace empirical analysis. While model projections can potentially offer some speculative scenarios for consideration by policymakers–especially in the early months of a pandemic–they should be treated with considerable skepticism. Their relevance and suitability should be continually revisited and, crucially, empirically reassessed as time elapses.”
To be valid, models need frequent testing in a changing environment against physical evidence. See link under Health, Energy, and Climate.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
It is time for voting on the Annual SEPP’s April Fools Award – the Jackson. The grand prize is a large lump of coal. Last year, the deserving winner of the lump of coal was the US National Science Teaching Association. In 2023, the Association banned the CO2 Coalition from its meeting which the Coalition members paid for and were approved because the CO2 Coalition exhibit pointed out that CO2 is essential for photosynthesis which is the food source of all complex life on Earth.
There are many strong candidates for this dubious honor including leaders of US scientific agencies who signed off on questionable reports on climate change. Get your votes in by June 29 with the reason why you recommend that person for the award. Send your vote to Ken@Sepp.org. If you wish, you will be anonymous. The award will be announced at the 43rd annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 5-6. The decision of the judges is final.
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Number of the Week: 430.51 parts per million (volume). According to its website:
“More than two years after road access and electrical power to the Mauna Loa Observatory was cut off by lava flows, NOAA staff continue to make critical measurements of the atmosphere and other environmental variables at the remote site.”
“Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) is located on the north flank of Mauna Loa Volcano, on the Big Island of Hawaii, at an elevation of 3397 meters, or 11,135 feet above sea level. The observatory is a premier atmospheric research facility that has been continuously monitoring and collecting data related to atmospheric change since the 1950’s.
Traditionally the CO2 reading peaks in May. As of June 5, 2025, The May 2025 preliminary reading was 430.51 ppm, the May 2024 preliminary reading was 426.90.
“The Mauna Loa data are being obtained at an altitude of 3400 m in the northern subtropics and may not be the same as the globally averaged CO2 concentration at the surface.” See https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Gold Standard Science
By Richard Lindzen Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and William Happer Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University, CO2 Coalition, May 25, 2025
The Faux Science of Outlawing Fossil Fuels
By Dr. Bruce Everett and Gordon Tomb, WUWT, June 2, 2025
Link to questionable paper: Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability
By Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, Nature, Apr 23, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08751-3
The Net Zero Straitjacket
Press Release, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, June 5, 2025
Link to: The Net Zero Straitjacket is Locking In Higher Bills
By Harry Wilkinson, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, June 2025
If it walks like a Duck Curve… It must be California
By David Middleton, WUWT, June 6, 2025
Link to Solar and wind power curtailments are increasing in California,
By Lori Aniti, EIA, May 28, 2025
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65364#
“Why Is California Continuing To Curtail Solar & Wind Energy Production?”
By Ron Miller, Energy Central, 2021 (?)
https://www.energycentral.com/renewables/post/why-california-continuing-curtail-solar-wind-energy-production–0-Uk9gLKqyWmzE40z
No confidence in uncertain predictions
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, June 3, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/no-confidence-in-uncertain-predictions
You might be aware that hurricane season has begun, along with the now customary predictions that we are due for an intense season. NOAA has excelled itself with its forecast, which gives a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA says it has a 70% confidence in these figures. This is meaningless! I note that there has been no statistical change in hurricane statistics for at least 54 years!
The Fraud of ‘Global Warming’
Taking Aim at One of the Most Pervasive Lies of the Modern Age
By Matthew Ehret, Badlands Media, June 5, 2025 [H/t Clare Goldsberry]
https://badlands.substack.com/p/the-fraud-of-global-warming?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1135129&post_id=165096567&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=ycbig&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
McKibben’s Math Misstep: Exposing Alarmism’s Historic Innumeracy in Rolling Stone
By Joe Duarte, WUWT, June 2, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Calling a tiny fraction a huge number?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate Change, Marine Pathogens, and Human Health
By Jan C. Semenza, et al., JAMA, Climate Change and Health, June 2, 2025 [H/t Clare Goldsberry]
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2834708
[SEPP Comment: Since the oceans are a solution with strong acids and strong bases, and it is alkaline (a base), how does increasing CO2 in the oceans so-called “ocean acidification” promote growth in pathogens? Water and CO2 create a weak acid, and the net effect is still alkaline. As shown by the upwellings in the ocean called” primary production areas” CO2 promotes life in the oceans.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
Link to: Canada at a Crossroads – Volume 6: Degrees of separation – Universities versus the public
By Ross McKitrick, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, May 21, 2025
New Study: North American Fires Were Four Times More Prevalent From 1600-1880 Than 1984-2022
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 3, 2025
Link to paper: A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned
By Sean A. Parks, et al., Nature Communications, Feb 10, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56333-8
On settled and unsettled science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
While the precise implications of the changes were not wholly clear, researchers said large numbers of the planet’s marine species and ecosystem services could be affected.” It couldn’t possibly be cool to discover something new about the climate. We have doom to monger so the science is totally settled that doom looms. Somehow. For sure.
National Academies Face Extinction Because… TRUMP!
By David Middleton, WUWT, June 4, 2025
Betting on red tape
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
We say never underestimate the capacity of a bureaucracy to expand. And add that of course she [Jeva Lange] presents both sides of her own opinion with expert backing:
Matt Ridley: How Your 14X Richer Future Arrives Faster Than You Think |
Video by Stephen McBride and Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist Society, June 4, 2025
https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/matt-ridley-how-your-14x-richer-future
After Paris!
The War on City-Dwellers
‘Climate Change’: Grift of the Century, Part III
By Robert Williams, Gatestone Institute, June 5, 2025 [H/t Stu Cvrk]
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21663/war-on-city-dwellers
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Global Greening From Higher CO2 Hits “Striking” New Heights – but the Mainstream Media Won’t Tell You About It
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, June 6, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Uncovering true significant trends in global greening
By Oliver Gutiérrez-Hernández and Luis V. García, Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, January 2025
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352938524002416
The effect of extra CO2 on Hairy Crabgrass
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
From the CO2Science Archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
India Spurns Carbon Tax Threat, Promotes Trade and Fossil Fuels
By Vijay Jayaraj, Cornwall Alliance, May 30, 2025
Like many developing economies, India faces coercion from the United Nations and Europe to conform to climate policies, especially through the imposition of carbon taxes on imports into their countries. But Delhi is not about to bend to such tactics.
Seeking a Common Ground
Confirmation Bias is the Enemy of Truth
Thoughts on National Review’s “Another Harvard Scandal Proves That Science Is Broken”
By Robert Malone, MD, His Blog, June 2, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.malone.news/p/confirmation-bias-is-the-enemy-of?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=583200&post_id=165023027&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=172n5r&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
“… the power of consensus narratives. Once a worldview or explanation takes root in a culture, it becomes both remarkably self-reinforcing and resistant to change, and in turn, organically drives the interpretation of adjacent ideas and phenomena. The narrative of human-caused global climate change has become so widely accepted that it no longer requires a hidden hand. A decentralized nearly unanimous army of true believers police that domain. The culture becomes invested in the falsehood and prefers censorship to questioning.”
How Many Statistically Significant Estimates Make a Guess?
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, ACSH, May 28, 2025
https://www.acsh.org/news/2025/05/28/how-many-statistically-significant-estimates-make-guess-49507
The moment you’ve produced a single numeric “estimate,” you’ve created a guess dressed in statistical clothing. As you add more estimates, your guess may become more or less respectable, but it remains a guess. The value of that guess depends on what you’re after.
Science, Policy, and Evidence
It’s Time for a Strategic Minerals Reserve
By Robert W. Chase, Real Clear Energy, June 04, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/04/its_time_for_a_strategic_minerals_reserve_1114293.html
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for May 2025: +0.50 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 5, 2025
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through May 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels break seasonal records: NOAA
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, June 6, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5337186-carbon-dioxide-reaches-record-high
“Another year, another record,” Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps CO2 Program, said in a statement. “It’s sad.”
[SEPP Comment: It is sad because green plants and the environment are flourishing?]
Changing Weather
#LookItUp: Changes in US flooding magnitude and frequency
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
Link to: Climate Change Indicators: River Flooding
By Staff, EPA, Accessed June 4, 2025
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding
Robeson: Up in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest and a few Midwest areas and down everywhere else. And down overall on average.
Sunniest Spring On Record
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2025
The Met Office would like you to believe that when we now get the same weather as 132 years ago, it is due to global warming!
Heat Hysteria In Germany: Authorities Recommend No Beer, Barbecues On Hot Days!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 3, 2025
The Scorching Hot German Summer of 1911
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 1, 2025
1911 in Germany saw a hot, dry summer that lasted from spring until well into September
[SEPP Comment: Did Germany ban beer in 1911?]
Where have all the windstorms gone?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
Changing Climate
New Study: Europe Was ‘Not Only Warmer But Also Wetter During Most Of The Pre-Industrial Holocene’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 6, 2025
Link to paper: Tree-ring stable isotopes from the European Alps reveal long-term summer drying over the Holocene
By Tito Arosio, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Apr 4, 2025
https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adr4161
Changing Seas
Measuring and Analyzing Sea Levels using Satellites during 2024
By Alan Welch, Via Kip Hansen, WUWT, June 6, 2025
Conclusions
The slope of the data has settled down to about 3.3 mm/year.
The “accelerations”, having peaked at just over 0.09 mm/year2 during the period 2017 to 2020, has now reduced to nearly 0.07 mm/year2 in early 2023 at which stage an El Niño caused a short-term blip back up to 0.08 mm/year2 before resuming a downward trend. With time the effect of future El Niños on the “accelerations” would gradually reduce.
The introduction of the spectral analysis and iterative determination of a sinusoidal curve has been a great benefit. Because of this the process has been extended to a much wider range of data, but as yet this has not all been analyzed. This amounted to over 50 times the amount of work (spreadsheets and figures) as needed when analyzing the NASA data. Therefore, I have spreadsheets coming out of my ears(!) but to fully present it all will need a large amount of extra compiling of results, producing figures, discussing and finalizing the conclusions.
Seattle Times Climate Lab Misinforms about Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise, and Seattle Flooding
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, June 3, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/06/seattle-times-climate-lab-misinforms.html
Since there appears to be no acceleration of the sea level rise in Seattle during he past decades, let’s extrapolate the historical rate for 25 years. You get 2 inches. Still very small.
Go crazy, double that amount. Still very small compared to astronomical and meteorological factors that are independent of global warming.
Sea Level Rise: Less Alarmism?
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource June 5, 2025
Sea Level Rise Hype from Climatists Lying by Omission Again
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, June 3, 2025
Iron from steel and coal manufacturing is changing the North Pacific ecosystem: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, June 2, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/5328528-iron-steel-coal-manufacturing-north-pacific-ecosystem-study
Link to paper: Anthropogenic iron alters the spring phytoplankton bloom in the North Pacific transition zone
By Nicholas J. Hawco, et al., PNAS, June 2, 2025
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2418201122
[SEPP Comment: Promoting natural growth is harmful?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Climate-Obsesseds’ Infantile Reading of Polar Ice
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, June 3, 2025
Whenever “experts are shocked” they usually have marginalized or ignored altogether factors wrongly assumed to have no influence over their hypotheses, theories or beliefs.
“even within the lifetime of our children”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 1, 2025
There is no shipping going on in the Arctic.
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Global wheat yields would be ‘10%’ higher without climate change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2025
Link to paper: A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises
By David B. Lobell and Stefania Di Tommaso, PNAS, May 5, 2025
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2502789122
From abstract: Linking agroclimatic data to crop productivity, we estimate that climate trends have caused current global yields of wheat, maize, and barley to be 10, 4, and 13% lower than they would have otherwise been. These losses likely exceeded the benefits of CO2 increases over the same period, whereas CO2 benefits likely exceeded climate-related losses for soybean and rice.
From Homewood: Perhaps the con merchants who wrote this study might care to explain exactly at what point in the last 65 years this “climate change effect” began to click in. And why the actual trends show no sign of this so-called effect becoming progressively worse – something which the authors say is already happening:
Maybe they might also like to explain how much lower wheat yields might now be without the benefits provided by fossil fuels, including increased mechanization, transportation and refrigeration.
Extended crop yield meta-analysis data do not support upward SCC revision
By Ross McKitrick, Nature, Scientific Reports, Feb 15, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-90254-2
See link immediately above
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The Guardian’s Climate Cult: Fiona Harvey’s Latest Sermon on COP30
By Tilak Doshi, His Substack, June 4, 2025
https://tilakdoshi.substack.com/p/the-guardians-climate-cult-fiona
William Happer, a Princeton physicist, has demonstrated that CO2’s warming effect is logarithmic, diminishing with increased concentration, and that current levels are far from catastrophic. Judith Curry, a former Georgia Tech climatologist, has meticulously documented the uncertainties in climate models, particularly their overreliance on assumptions about positive feedback loops. Nobel laureate John Clauser has called the climate crisis narrative “pseudoscience”, arguing that it ignores fundamental principles of physics. These are not fringe voices but eminent scientists whose peer-reviewed work is grounded in observable evidence, not ideological fervor.
Axios Misleads on Hot Summers: Nighttime Lows, Not Daytime Highs, Tell the Real Story
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 5, 2025
Forbes’ False Alarm: NASA Claims on Worsening Weather Debunked by Data
By Linnea Lueken, WUWT, May 31, 2025
Why wait?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
And on cue MSN retails a Canadian Press story “Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn”. Yes, the folks who can’t see a week ahead are making multi-year forecasts.
Once upon a time the average newspaper was a daily skeptic. Nowadays they read like Pravda. And they wonder why people are losing faith in them.
But if you can’t, that 86% is mathiness, an intimidatingly exact but irritatingly spurious feigning of precision.
Wrong, Augusta Chronicle, Spread of Invasive Species in Georgia Isn’t Due to Climate Change
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, June 2, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Just Weeks Away From Climate Alarmists Yelling ‘End Of World’
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, June 5, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/six-weeks-away-climate-alarmists-yelling-end-world
We’re six weeks out from the Northern Hemisphere’s annual temperature cycle peak — and, as predictably as ever, the leftist corporate media, climate alarmists, and the usual “trust the science” suspects are likely preparing to ramp up their annual screamfest, warning that the planet is melting into an irreversible hellish state.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
“The Atmosphere Is ‘Thirstier.’”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 6, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Heller shows something the NYT ignores: The Palmer Drought Severity Index for August 1934. Aside: One would expect that a Severity Index would be some kind of positive number that is larger if something is more severe. The Palmer Drought Index is a negative number that is more negative when there is more drought. Heller warns about this anomaly with the note “Higher Numbers are Wetter.”]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Basic Physics All at Sea in Sky News Climate Scare Nonsense Story
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, May 31, 2025
Possibly one of the dumbest and most scientifically illiterate climate scare stories ever written has been published by the fast-fading UK Sky News. Climate reporter Victoria Seabrook notes that the sea ice on the Arctic “continent” is melting at 12% every decade but she backs it up by publishing a graph clearly showing it has been stable since 2007.
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Activist Scientists Rage About Trump’s Executive Order, Comparing Him to Hitler For Insisting That Federally-Funded Science Projects Are More Scientifically Rigorous
By Chris Morrison, Daily Sceptic, June 2, 2025
Theater of the Absurd: Indivisible’s Storm Show Rolls into Red Florida
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 3, 2025
If history teaches anything, it’s that complex problems don’t get solved by chanting slogans and waving signs. They get solved by adults in rooms with data, accountability, and a willingness to question groupthink.
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Take A Hike: Driving Will Be Verboten
I & I Editorial Board, May 29, 2025 [H/t Ron Clutz]
Anyone who thought electric-vehicle mandates and policies designed to force Americans out of their cars and into public transit or onto early 18th-century technology (bicycles) are intended to protect the environment is either naive or an accomplice in tyranny. The evidence has been helpfully provided by a Massachusetts senator [Massachusetts Senate Majority Leader Cynthia Stone Creem] who wants to limit how far people can travel.
Questioning European Green
MPs from Left and Right in France vote to ditch “low emission zones” and bans on old cars
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 3, 2025
John Rentoul’s Fake Cost Of Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2025
Business organizations betraying their members
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 4, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/business-organisations-betrayal
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Betting other people’s money… and lives
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
It’s not just that climate alarmists have spent so long insisting that “alternatives” are cheaper as well as cleaner, and to some extent that they’re cheaper because they’re cleaner, that it would be embarrassing to admit oops, heh heh, more expensive actually. It’s that they have to be, or a great deal of their reasoning on climate generally is wrong. But at some point, if your worldview isn’t handling incoming data effectively, it bursts.
Green Schemes Hidden by Greenhushing
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, June 4, 2025
Video of interview with Bjorn Lomborg and partial transcript with comments.
Funding Issues
EPA, Park Service take big hits in latest Trump budget plan
By Rache Frazin, The Hill, June 2, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5329529-epa-park-service-noaa-trump-budget-cuts
Nonprofit Funded By Chinese Gov’t-Linked Entities Backs Blue State’s ‘Unconstitutional’ Climate Law
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 31, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/31/chinese-govt-linked-nonprofit-backs-unconstitutional-blue-state-climate-shakedown-law
The Political Games Continue
Canada PM Carney Floats Imaginary “Decarbonized Oil” Pipeline
By Ron Clutz, His Blog June 6, 2025
Link to: Alberta and Ottawa tout a grand bargain on ‘decarbonized’ oil, but some are skeptical
Carney said he’d consider fast-tracking a new oil pipeline to the West Coast if it shipped ‘decarbonized barrels’
By Rahim Mohamed, National Post, (Canada), June 3, 2025
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/alberta-and-ottawa-are-touting-a-grand-bargain-on-decarbonized-oil-but-some-are-skeptical
Litigation Issues
SCOTUS Slaps Down Green Overreach: 8-0 Ruling Frees Infrastructure from NEPA Shackles
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 1, 2025
Supreme Court hands big win to fossil fuels, agency power
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 2, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5326566-supreme-court-fossil-fuels-climate-change-trump
While environmental groups frequently describe projects ranging from coal mines to pipelines as “carbon bombs,” the high court said in an 8-0 ruling that may not be the case — finding in Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County that the projects themselves are not responsible for the upstream or downstream pollution for fuel or other products they simply transport or produce.
[SEPP Comment: Exaggerated comments by plaintiffs using NEPA have been greatly misleading.]
Trump Executive Orders Violate Young People’s Rights to a Stable Climate, a Lawsuit Alleges
Twenty-two young people from across the country sued the Trump administration over the executive orders, which prioritize the expansion of fossil fuels.
By Amy Green, Inside Climate News, May 30, 2025 [H/t Ron Clutz]
A group of 22 young people from across the country accuse the Trump administration in a new federal lawsuit of violating their constitutional rights with a coordinated set of executive orders that prioritize the expansion of fossil fuels and threaten to further destabilize the climate.
The complaint, filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court in Montana, challenges three executive orders: “Unleashing American Energy,” “Declaring a National Energy Emergency” and “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry.” The lawsuit argues that with the orders, the Trump administration knowingly is advancing an agenda that will increase greenhouse gas pollution that already is stressing the global climate to a dangerous extent.
Label Makers
Lawyers are in the litigation business.
By Doomberg Blog, June 5, 2025
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/label-makers?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=164821829&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Do Energy Subsidies Really Help Grid Security?
By Craig Shirley, Real Clear Energy, June 03, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/03/do_energy_subsidies_really_help_grid_security_1114288.html
The U.S. Senate Must Reform IRA Green Subsidies to Unleash Energy Dominance
By Gabriella Hoffman, Real Clear Energy, June 04, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/04/the_us_senate_must_reform_ira_green_subsidies_to_unleash_energy_dominance_1114536.html
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Missed Big, Beautiful Opportunity to Fix ‘Forever’ Chemicals
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, June 2, 2025
https://www.acsh.org/news/2025/06/02/epa-missed-big-beautiful-opportunity-fix-forever-chemicals-49530
Misconception #2: PFOA/PFOS causes cancer.
The EPA asserted that there was evidence for kidney and testicular cancer in humans and other types of cancer in rats while ignoring larger occupational studies that did not show increased cancer in workers who were exposed to greater levels of PFOA/PFOS than the general population. The lack of evidence of a cancer risk is supported by the independent scientific committees that advise the UK governmental agencies that concluded that there was “no evidence between exposure to PFAS and cancer risk” and the European Food Safety Authority that found little evidence linking PFOA/PFAS exposure to increased cancer risk.
Energy Issues – Non-US
Net Zero cripples Government defence plans
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, June 2, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/net-zero-cripples-defence
“A secure supply of munitions relies on secure domestic production of petrochemicals to make explosives and fuels.”
Mad Miliband Is Out Of Control
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 5, 2025
The whole idea is absurd anyway. The idea that more renewable generators will be built down south in search of higher prices ignores the fact that they will all get the same CfD price anyway. The real object is to suppress demand in areas with low renewable output.
But more to the point, how on earth does Miliband get the authority to set energy prices?
[SEPP Comment: Edward Miliband is Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change of the United Kingdom.]
Gas Only Explains A Small Part Of Electricity Price Rise [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 1, 2025
Ed Miliband STRIKES Again | Plans For “Net Zero Tax” On Household Gas Bills SLAMMED
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2025
Video Covers costs of replacing gas heaters with heat pumps in the UK.
Energy Issues – Australia
Billions of dollars spent on wind, solar, and batteries and Australian electricity emissions went up last year
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 31, 2025
At this point in our breakneck transition, wind-factories and solar panels should be going in all over the country. But we just heard that the price of high voltage transmission towers was going to cost up to 55% more than expected, and the AEMO was throwing their previous plans to the wind. Now, we’re all supposed to subsidize each other to buy home batteries, EVs, and solar panels. What do we call that — a pyramid scheme?
Labor Net Zero obsession: Australians don’t know they’re spending $12,000 million dollars a year to fix the weather
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 5, 2025
For your sake, the Australian government took at least $440 of yours this year and spent it on electrical hobgoblins that claim to make nicer weather in a hundred years. That’s $1,800 for each family of four, in order to reduce world temperatures by nothing in our lifetimes.
Buy a battery, join a virtual power plant, and let AGL eat 80% of your battery for dinner
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 6, 2025
AGL Energy is Australia’s largest electricity generator.
Looming US Battery Company Shutdown Imperils Aussie Net Zero Push
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 3, 2025
The Waratah Super Battery when completed will have a capacity of 1680MWh – equivalent to just over half an hour of Eraring Coal Plant output when fully charged. Given wind droughts covering the entire continent of Australia have occurred at least twice in the last five years, only the engineering challenged could believe a battery of this capacity is an adequate replacement for a plant capable of delivering a continuous 2880MW.
Energy Issues — US
New York Electric Power Trends
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, June 6, 2025
Link to: Press Release, NYISO Releases Power Trends 2025, June 2, 2025
https://www.nyiso.com/-/press-release-nyiso-releases-power-trends-2025
Link to Fact Sheet, NYISO Power Trends June 2025
https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/23494579/2025-Power-Trends-Fact-Sheet.pdf/c0eb52f2-806b-8813-a0cf-171475cf0790
Link to report: Power Trends 2025
By Staff New York ISO, 2025
https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2223020/2025-Power-Trends.pdf/51517a1b-36fa-4f3d-d44d-eabe23598514?t=1748866865402
Can Anyone Save New York From Its Coming Self-Inflicted Climate and Energy Disaster?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 4, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-6-4-can-anyone-save-new-york-from-its-coming-self-inflicted-climate-and-energy-disaster
NERC’s Summer Grid Outlook Shows Progress, but Elevated Risks Persist as Load Growth Outpaces Flexibility
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, May 15, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/nercs-summer-grid-outlook-shows-progress-but-elevated-risks-persist-as-load-growth-outpaces-flexibility/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrtddirect+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Alaska Is Key to American Energy Security
By Caleb Jasso, Real Clear Energy, June 05, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/05/alaska_is_key_to_american_energy_security_1114545.html
America’s Energy Shift: From Coal To What? (1950–2024)
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, June 5, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/americas-energy-shift-coal-what-1950-2024
Video of total energy, not just electricity.
We Need a ‘Kill Switch’ on Foreign Powers Tampering With Our Electric Grid
By Gary Abernathy, Real Clear Energy, June 04, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/04/we_need_a_kill_switch_on_foreign_powers_tampering_with_our_electric_grid_1114298.html
Texas Renewable Cronyism Continues (Sheridan summary)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 6, 2025
Take 3: Texas politicians, including the Governor and Lt. Governor, have allowed massive amounts of subsidized, first-in-line, part-time renewables to poison the economic well on Ercot to such a degree that there’s now no quick fix. So, cravenly, they’ve decided to allow the well to continue to be further poisoned.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Alaska’s Resource Potential: A Tale of Two Administrations
By Brett Huber, Real Clear Energy, June 04, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/04/alaskas_resource_potential_a_tale_of_two_administrations_1114297.html
Trump Admin Walks Back Biden Rule ‘Smothering’ Alaskan Oil
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, June 2, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/06/02/trump-admin-walks-back-biden-rule-smothering-alaska-oil
Beyond placing restrictions on Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, the Biden administration also targeted the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), retroactively canceled lease sales and effectively blocked a major mining project in the state, often citing the administration’s commitment to protecting the environment for native communities in official statements and press releases. However, these actions deeply disappointed some Alaska Native communities, who told the Daily Caller News Foundation previously that the administration largely disregarded their desire for development essential to their community’s economy.
Why President Trump’s EO on Deep Sea Mining Is a Strategic Imperative
By Hans Smit, Real Clear Energy, June 03, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/03/why_president_trumps_eo_on_deep_sea_mining_is_a_strategic_imperative_1114241.html
The scale of our resource is extraordinary. Independent estimates indicate reserves of approximately 80.9 million tons of manganese, 2.5 million tons of cobalt, 1.4 million tons of nickel, and 1.5 million tons of rare earth elements. With just a single production vessel, the project is projected to generate $1.4 billion in annual revenue and a net present value of $4.7 billion.
Trump administration issues rule undermining Biden car fuel efficiency rules
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 6, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5337018-trump-administration-challenges-biden-fuel
The Transportation Department published an interpretive rule that says the Biden administration improperly considered electric vehicles as a way to make vehicle fleets more efficient
While this determination does not formally end the Biden-era rule, the Trump administration indicated that while the rulemaking process plays out, it may not enforce the Biden-era standards.
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Permian Basin – The Energizer Bunny of Oil
By David Middleton, WUWT, June 4, 2025
Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.
[SEPP Comment: Detail on tight oil formations.]
The U.S. Senate Can Give American Manufacturers the Certainty They Deserve
By Matt Seaholm, Real Clear Energy, June 05, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/06/the_us_senate_can_give_american_manufacturers_the_certainty_they_deserve_1114550.html
Matt Seaholm is President & CEO, Plastics Industry Association.
If You Want to Drill Baby Drill, You’ve Got to Build Baby Build
By Maggie Miller, The Miller Report, Via Real Clear Investigations, June 4, 2025
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/video/2025/06/04/if_you_want_to_drill_baby_drill_youve_got_to_build_baby_build_1114529.html
Video of Devon Energy CEO Clay Gaspar, One and one-half hours
Return of King Coal?
Coal No Outmoded Relic, Can Meet Global Energy Needs
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, June 4, 2025
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/coal-electric-vehicles-ai/2025/06/04/id/1213648
Rather than an outmoded past relic, coal must represent a significant part of this mix as an abundant, reliable, affordable source of electricity, fuel components, and petrochemicals to meet growing national and global demands.
Coal Is the New Bridge Fuel
By Bernard L. Weinstein, Real Clear Energy, June 3, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/03/coal_is_the_new_bridge_fuel_1114244.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The new nuclear capital of America
Are you ready for $10 energy bills?
By Stephen McBride, Rational Optimist Society, June 1, 2025
https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/the-new-nuclear-capital-of-america
Hi-income low-energy countries don’t exist.
Trump Administration Expedites Approval for New Uranium Mine in Utah
The reopening of this mine aligns with Trump administration push to expedite the development of U.S. nuclear energy capacity.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, May 29, 2025
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/05/trump-administration-expedites-approval-for-new-uranium-mine-in-utah
Meta Deal With Constellation Will Keep Illinois Nuclear Plant Open
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, June 3, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/meta-deal-with-constellation-will-keep-illinois-nuclear-plant-open/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Sunnova EVP’s Exit: Self-adulation Within a Taxpayer Bubble
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 4, 2025
“Install quality? Forget it—an army of barely trained crews built the boom, and now we’re paying the price. Maintenance? There was no plan. Just a contract, a handshake, and a hope it would all work out.
This is not just an engineering issue—it’s a financial one. Underperforming assets are generating less revenue than forecasted, while increasing the risk of electrical faults, fire hazards, and insurance claims.”
More Proof Wind Energy Isn’t “Clean” Or “Green.” Irish Court Orders Wind Turbines Shut Down Due To Noise Pollution
After a 12-year legal battle, a Dublin judge orders a wind company to shutter three turbines and pay nearby property owners $411,000 in damages.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, June 7, 2025
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/more-proof-wind-energy-isnt-clean?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=165396259&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Showdown looms for Empire Wind
By David Wojick, CFACT, June 2, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/06/02/showdown-looms-for-empire-wind
A group protesting the project has filed a federal lawsuit challenging its approval. Unlike prior lawsuits, this one makes a new argument in addition to some of the usual ones. It challenges the NOAA Fisheries’ authorized harassment of large numbers of a threatened dolphin.
The issue is the authorization limits in the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which the lawsuit claims are being exceeded by a huge margin. On paper this looks like a strong case, so there is a real possibility the court will stop the project.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Wood Pellets: America’s Underrated Power Play
By Darrell Smith, Reall Clear Energy, June 05, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/06/05/wood_pellets_americas_underrated_power_play_1114798.html
Let’s be clear: climate solutions need to scale. We need terawatts of clean power, gigatons of carbon removal, and a replacement for fossil carbon in sectors where options are limited. Think steel mills, cargo ships, aviation fuel, and cement plants — industries that can’t rely on solar panels and wind turbines.
[SEPP Comment: Assumes CO2 from fossil fuels is harmful, CO2 from burning trees is not? Early Americans depleted the Eastern forests, by the 1880s, coal replaced wood as the most practical fuel.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Anti-Magnetic
In response to Trump’s trade war, China is slow-walking rare earth exports and global automakers are facing widespread shutdowns. In 2019, a Chinese media outlet said: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you.”
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, June 4, 2025
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/anti-magnetic?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=165113765&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Cargo Ship Packed with Hundreds of EVs Now a Hair’s Width Away from Becoming an Ecological Catastrophe
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2025
When Lithium-Ion Batteries Set Sail: Another Warning to be Ignored by the Climate Technocrats
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 5, 2025
On June 4, 2025, the Morning Midas—a cargo ship loaded with over 3,000 vehicles, including approximately 800 electric and hybrid models—was left adrift in the Pacific Ocean after catching fire 300 miles southwest of Alaska’s Adak Island.
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Management Demotion (“Big Oil’s” failed political bet)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 2, 2025
Turning to Big Gas, two Calpine grants for carbon capture and storage took a hit: 550-MW gas-fired Sutter power plant in Yuba City, California and 810-MW Baytown power plant in Baytown, Texas.
Situation excellente!
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 4, 2025
There’s a famous line attributed to French Marshal Ferdinand Foch at the 1914 Battle of the Marne informing his superior Joseph Joffre that “Mon centre cède, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j’attaque.” (“My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, situation excellent, I am attacking.”)
California Dreaming
Trump’s Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy Releases Report Exposing No Viable Path Forward for California’s High-Speed Rail Boondoggle
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 4, 2025
Link to report: Trump’s Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy Releases Report Exposing No Viable Path Forward for California’s High-Speed Rail Boondoggle
By Staff, DOT, June 4, 2025
https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/trumps-transportation-secretary-sean-p-duffy-releases-report-exposing-no-viable-path
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy today released the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Compliance Review Report finding that the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA)’s high speed rail project is in default of the terms of its federal grant awards. The detailed report, which is over 300 pages, contains 9 key findings including missed deadlines, budget shortfalls, and overrepresentation of projected ridership. The two grants total roughly $4 billion in taxpayer money. As the letter notes, CHSRA has up to 37 days to respond, after which the grants could be terminated.
California’s Indispensable Heavy Oil
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed June 4, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7860378?e=cd9fa89d1e
California’s production has declined from 1.1 million barrels per day in 1985 to 325,000 today, i.e., from near self-sufficiency in oil to near total dependence on imported oil.
California Democrats Rail Against Energy Regulations They Unleashed As Gas Crisis Looms
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 29, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/29/california-democrats-rail-against-energy-regulations-they-unleashed-as-gas-crisis-looms
Health, Energy, and Climate
What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?
By Gerry A. Quinn, Ronan Connolly, et al., International Journal of Public Health, May 29, 2025
https://www.ssph-journal.org/journals/international-journal-of-public-health/articles/10.3389/ijph.2025.1607727/full?utm_source
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Five geoengineering trials the UK is funding to combat global warming
By Robert Chris, The Conversation, June 3, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://theconversation.com/five-geoengineering-trials-the-uk-is-funding-to-combat-global-warming-256515
[SEPP Comment: The prevailing winds in the UK blow from the southwest, across the Atlantic Ocean. This brings warm, moist air which helps to produce mild and wet winters. Will Norway and Sweden accuse the UK of trying to freeze them out?]
The German “Record Heat Summer” Weather Clowns Already Out In Full Force
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 31, 2025
ARTICLES
1. The Physics Behind the Spanish Blackout
Madrid knew solar and wind power were unreliable but pressed ahead anyway.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, June 2, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-physics-behind-the-spanish-blackout-solar-and-wind-power-unstable-grid-8be54b2a?mod=hp_opin_pos_4
Link to cited study: Analysis of Spain’s April 2025 Blackout: Causes, Low-Inertia Grid Risks, and Protection Solutions
By Staff, SMC, May 9, 2025
https://smcint.com/electrical-testing/analysis-of-spains-april-2025-blackout-causes-low-inertia-grid-risks-and-protection-solutions
The president of the Copenhagen Consensus begins with:
“When a grid failure plunged 55 million people in Spain and Portugal into darkness at the end of April, it should have been a wake-up call on green energy. Climate activists promised that solar and wind power were the future of cheap, dependable electricity. The massive half-day blackout shows otherwise. The nature of solar and wind generation makes grids that rely on them more prone to collapse—an issue that’s particularly expensive to ameliorate.
As I wrote in these pages in January, the data have long shown that environmentalists’ vision of cheap, reliable solar and wind energy was a mirage. The International Energy Agency’s latest cost data continue to underscore this: Consumers and businesses in countries with almost no solar and wind on average paid 11 U.S. cents for a kilowatt hour of electricity in 2023, but costs rise by more than 4 cents for every 10% increase in the portion of a nation’s power generation that’s covered by solar and wind. Green countries such as Germany pay 34 cents, more than 2.5 times the average U.S. rate and nearly four times China’s.
Prices are high in no small part because solar and wind require a duplicate backup energy system, often fossil-fuel driven, for when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow. The Iberian blackout shows that the reliability issues and costs of solar and wind are worse than even this sort of data indicates.
Grids need to stay on a very stable frequency—generally 50 Hertz in Europe—or else you get blackouts. Fossil-fuel, hydro and nuclear generation all solve this problem naturally because they generate energy by powering massive spinning turbines. The inertia of these heavy rotating masses resists changes in speed and hence frequency, so that when sudden demand swings would otherwise drop or hike grid frequency, the turbines work as immense buffers. But wind and solar don’t power such heavy turbines to generate energy. It’s possible to make up for this with cutting-edge technology such as advanced inverters or synthetic inertia. But many solar and wind farms haven’t undergone these expensive upgrades. If a grid dominated by those two power sources gets off frequently, a blackout is more likely than in a system that relies on other energy sources.
Spain has been forcing its grid to rely more on unstable renewables. The country has pursued an aggressive green policy, including a commitment it adopted in 2021 to achieve ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050. The share of solar and wind as a source of Spain’s electricity production went from less than 23% in 2015 to more than 43% last year. The government wants its total share of renewables to hit 81% in the next five years—even as it’s phasing out nuclear generation.
Just a week prior to the blackout, Spain bragged that for the first time, renewables delivered 100% of its electricity, though only for a period of minutes around 11:15 a.m. When it collapsed, the Iberian grid was powered by 74% renewable energy, with 55% coming from solar. It went down under the bright noon sun. When the Iberian grid frequency started faltering on April 28, the grid’s high proportion of solar and wind generation couldn’t stabilize it. This isn’t speculation; it’s physics. As the electricity supply across Spain collapsed, Portugal was pulled along, because the two countries are tightly interconnected through the Iberian electricity network.
Madrid had been warned. The parent company of Spain’s grid operator admitted in February: ‘The high penetration of renewable generation without the necessary technical capabilities in place to keep them operating properly in the event of a disturbance . . . can cause power generation outages, which could be severe.’
Yet the Spanish government is still in denial. Even while admitting that he didn’t know the April blackout’s cause, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez insisted that there was ‘no empirical evidence’ that renewables were to blame and that Spain is ‘not going to deviate a single millimeter’ from its green energy ambitions.
Unless the country—and its neighbors—are comfortable with an increased risk of blackouts, this will require expensive upgrades. A new Reuters report written with an eye to the Iberian blackout finds that for Europe as a whole this would cost trillions of dollars in infrastructure updates. It’s possible that European politicians can talk voters into eating that cost. It’ll be impossible for India or nations in Africa to follow suit.”
Lomborg states that even a prime minister cannot overcome physics and concludes with:
“Unfortunately for Spain and those countries unlucky enough to be nearby, the Spanish energy system—as one Spanish politician put it— “’s being managed with an enormous ideological bias.’”
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