Twenty years of blogs in retrospective

20 years have passed since we started blogging on climate here in Realclimate (December 10, 2004). We wanted to counteract misinformation about climate change that was extending through several campaigns. In those days it was an unusual movement that caused A welcome from Nature.

One thing that I did not anticipate then was the vast global scale that would achieve false news and conspiracy theories. Nor will it foresee how they would penetrate other disciplines, nor the scope of the division in today’s society between those who value the truths and those who do not.

There is a graph that perhaps tells the story of what happened since 2004, and it is the keel curve shown in the figure below. Shows atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (co₂) and tells a story about the carbon cycle, which involves the bark of the earth, the atmosphere, the earth’s surface, the biosphere and the oceans.

The co₂ Levels have increased to A growing rhythm both in the atmosphere and in the oceans, and the sad irony is that the growth rate has increased after each climate summit (parties conference, also known as POLICE) and Evaluation Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the same way, there have been increases in Other greenhouse gasesthat Gavin describes very well in his recent climate science after the operation. In a nutshell, they are responsible for climate change, mainly due to an increase in the greenhouse effect. The consequence is global warming, changes in the hydrological cycle of the earth, the fusion of ice and snow, defrosting permafrost, the increase in sea level and changes in weather statistics.

This year is on the way to being the warmest ever observed according to the WMO and data provided by the European climatic services of Copernicus (C3S). Our society has not adapted to these changes, and the situation is far from stabilizing.

So what has gone wrong? TO Recent Editorial of The Guardian discuss some defects and weaknesses of past police and a similar feeling has been reported at the Washington Post.

On the one hand, there are people who have learned from the impressive efforts that have dedicated themselves to explaining climate change and to increase Climate literacy. An example is This video produced for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NAS).

A better understanding of climate change has been a force behind the growth of solar panels, wind energy and electric cars. There has also been technical progress not related to climate change, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and now we can use chatgpt to respond to emails of climatic denaders that were Science fiction In 2004. IA is also currently revolutionizing the weather forecast.

And there is a growing awareness about the links between nature, biodiversity and climate, but we still fight to transmit our main message to all.

I am surprised that we still have a bad habit of speaking in a code language with confusing phrases and terminology that is only familiar to those who are already familiar with the science of the climate and that are already persuaded. I wrote a publication about the IPCC summary for policy formulators (SPM) about this in 2023, but without much effect. Today there are AI tools that can translate PowerPoint’s presentation of a scientist into something that is more pedagogical and understandable for a secular person, so perhaps this situation improves.

There also seems to be little dialogue in different sectors and disciplines and a lack of trust. Obviously, the message of weather scientists has not reached those decision makers who could fold the keel curve down. In other words, our knowledge about climate change has not reached those leaders who may have the greatest effect on the treatment of coal, oil and gas production. The message should be understood in the rooms of oil and coal companies, and for their CEO, shareholders and investors. Also by OPEC and politicians who make decisions about fossil resources.

Another thing that I did not anticipate in 2004 were efforts such as Attribution of world climate (Wwa). The attribution connects the weather and the weather and can remind the decision makers within the fossil sector about the fact that we share the same planet and that global warming will affect everyone, whether directly or indirectly. In a recent article (Benestad et al, 2024) We provide an even clearer image than before the extreme temperature and precipitation that have become more frequent and generalized since 1950. Such extremes have a devastating impact on both nature and society.

Finally, in 2004 I did not anticipate that social networks, such as Twitter (now X) and Facebook, dominate the propagation of information and misinformation. Blogs ended up in the shadow of social networks for years, but things are changing, stimulated by scandals surrounding Facebook and X. The Guardian no longer publishes in XAnd I’m giving Bluesky to go as Many of my good colleagues. With luck, the greatest activity in Bluesky can steal part of the juice of X.

References

1. Re Benestad, C. Lussana and A. Dobler, “The recurrence rates of global records indicate extremes of more widespread and intense precipitation of surface air,” Scientific advancesvol. 10, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado3712