A stalagmite in a cave in Yucatan has provided a new vision of the role that drought may have played in Mayan socio -political changes more than 1,000 years ago. A recent analysis of a rain proxy in the Mayan lowlands revealed that there were several episodes of severe and prolonged drought during the classical Mayan periodic period (approximately 800-1000 CE), a time when large urban centers experienced major socio-political changes.
Researchers suggest that, like climate change, it acts as a threat multiplier today, drought may have amplified existing problems in Mayan political centers such as Chichén Itzá and Uxmal and added climate stress to societies that are already under pressure.
“These climatic events would have affected each individual site in a very specific way depending on the resistance of that site at that time,” said the principal investigator Daniel JamesWHO studies the paleoambiental reconstruction at the University College London. “Hopefully the precision of this registry allows [analysis] To do in individual sites … then we can start building an image of what I am sure will be a wide variety of social responses to climate change at this time and in the region. “
Extended droughts during wet seasons
During the Classic Mayan Terminal PeriodSeveral Mayan cities in the lowlands of the South (in the modern Mexico, Belize and Guatemala) experienced socio-political agitation, abandonment of the site and depopulation. Political and cultural centers changed north. Although social changes are clear in the archaeological registry, there is still a generalized debate about the potential promoters of these changes, as well as why some cities-state survived, while others did not.
Drought often appears in these debates as a potential destabilizer: insufficient or unpredictable rain can lead to food instabilities, commercial interruptions, diseases and even military conflicts. But previous paleoclimity studies failed to precisely specify the times and durations of droughts in the Mayan lowlands during the classical terminal period, James said.
James and his colleagues walked to a cave called Grutas Tzabnah, in the state of Yucatán, Mexico, located near several large classic Mayan sites, including Chichen Itzá and Uxmal. This cave has been sought before for paleoclimity studies in the region due to its accessibility and well -preserved cave formations. In addition, Grutas Tzabnah is also a relatively shallow cave, which means that the water does not take long to drip in the cave from the ground level.
The researchers chose a stalagmite that has been growing for thousands of years and shows different layers of annual growth. This particular stalagmite grew rapidly in the layers that date back to the classic Mayan terminal period, James said, so the team was able to collect 10-20 data points within each annual layer to determine the subanual and seasonal rain.
“You can see wet seasons and dry seasons in our record, while the previous records of the same cave are looking for annual average rains,” James said. “The rain of the wet season is what determines the success or failure of agriculture, in opposition to the annual average.”
They measured the ages of the layers using the radiometric quantity of uranium-thorium and the amount of rain using a stable oxygen isotope ratio, δ18Or, inside the calcite. Stalagmit samples that recorded a lower Δ18Or indicate more rain, while higher δ18Or indicate less rain. The team calibrated its paleoclimate calculations with modern rainwater and drip cave for a few years to ensure that they could convert the δ of the stalagmite18O Measures to the rain.
From 871 to 1021, the Stalagmite registered eight extreme droughts during wet seasons, each duration of at least 3 years. A 4 -year -old drought that began in 894 was interrupted for a single humid year and was followed by another 5 years of wet season drought. A few decades later, the region had experienced 13 consecutive years of wet season drought (929-942), longer than any drought of several years in local historical records. This investigation was published in Scientific advances In August.
“Chronology makes this one of the most detailed paleoclimity records available to understand human climatic interactions during the Mayan collapse period.”
“This new study represents a significant advance in our understanding of classic terminal drought patterns, mainly due to its exceptional temporary resolution and robust age control with uncertainties of only a few years,” he said Sophie Warkenwho studies thickness and climatic variability at Universität Heidelberg in Germany and did not participate in this research.
“This high -resolution approach allows the authors to examine the time and duration of individual individual drought episodes, which previous studies could only identify as wide periods of drying,” Warken added. “Chronology makes this one of the most detailed paleoclimity records available to understand human climatic interactions during the Mayan collapse period.”
A piece of puzzle
While this rainy record is a big step forward, Warken said he would like to see it verified using additional proxies as trace elements, as well as a longer modern calibration period. You would also like to see this extended record before and after the classical terminal period to measure if those droughts were really exceptional to the region.
“Such extended paleoclimity networks could also provide crucial baselines to evaluate recent and future climatic changes in this vulnerable region,” he added.
Despite the fact that extended droughts coincide with the main social changes, James warned that this does not mean that drought caused these changes or even the most important factor.
“I would love that these data are used to separate individual stories from individual resilience and survival sites, as well as the stories of disintegration of systems and abandonment and loss of the population.”
“Other difficulties such as famine, disease and internal violence could have been caused by drought or, in fact, they could have been in advance in advance and make society more susceptible and less prepared for climatic difficulties,” James said.
It is important to note that archaeological evidence suggests that two Mayan cities near this cave, Chichen Itzá and the regional capital of Uxmal, did not decrease at the same pace. (Uxmal It decreased much faster.) Understand the pressures that the two cities experienced, including drought, will be key to creating a holistic image of how cities worked during the classical terminal period.
“While climate stress probably played an important role in the classical terminal transformations,” Warken said, “the response of the Maya to drought was probably mediated by existing social, political and economic vulnerabilities that varied between different centers and regions.”
“It could be how well they were governed, how rigid or flexible it was their political system, how good their water management was at that time,” James said.
“I would love that these data are used to separate individual stories from individual resilience and survival sites, as well as the stories of disintegration of systems and the abandonment and loss of the population,” he added.
“Kimberly Mrs. Cartier (@Atrakimcartier.bsky.social), Personnel writer
Citation: Cartier, KMS (2025), the main droughts coincided with the classic Mayan collapse, EOS, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250361. Posted on September 24, 2025.
Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC -nd 3.0
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