As global temperatures rise more year after year, the earth is directed towards a new era marked by a possible violation of the Paris Agreement. Signed in 2016, the International Climate Treaty established a limit to prevent global surface temperatures. To fail this critical proof.
Recent temperature data reflect a spin for worse, as 2024 became the first year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees C. The two new studies, both published in Climate change of natureThey were motivated by this turning point to determine if the data of 2024 foreshadow an imminent violation of the Paris Agreement limit; The simulations referred to in both studies show that it is a real possibility.
A worrying pattern
It is impossible to say that the Paris Agreement The limit has yet been broken, since it is based on the average execution of the global surface temperature, measured in periods of 20 years. One year of 1.5 degrees C above pre -industrial levels, therefore, it does not mean that the limit is approved, since factors such as an El Niño event, a natural climate pattern that results in the heating of the Pacific Ocean, impact the Annual data. However, it could still represent the beginning of long -term warming.
One of the studies, based in Europe, examined Heating trends In the past, to see how the world complied with the previous temperature thresholds: 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1.0 degrees C above pre -industrial levels accordingly. The study authors found that the first unique year when each of these thresholds was constantly exceeded within the first 20 -year periods that reached the same temperature thresholds.
This pattern implies that from 2024 an average of 1.5 degrees C above pre -industrial levels reached, we may have already entered a 20 -year warming period that could eventually mark a violation of the Paris Agreement. If this is true, the impact of a world that will average 1.5 degrees C Warmer could materialize soon. There is the possibility of reducing the probability of heating above 1.5 degrees C in the coming years, but this would require strict mitigation efforts worldwide, the study authors affirm.
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The beginning of long -term warming
The other study, based in Canada, involved a similar method to consider historical data as a way of anticipating Future global warming. He pointed out that June 2024 was the 12th consecutive month of global surface temperatures that reach the reference of 1.5 degrees C (but again, this does not indicate a violation of the Paris Agreement still).
Taking into account the 12 consecutive months of temperatures above the 1.5 degree threshold, the simulation in this study revealed that a short -term crossing of 1.5 degrees C in June 2024 means that a long -term crossing would probably occur before 2029 .
Waiting for climatic plans
The growing threat of climate change became even more evident in 2024, with the Paris Agreement constantly imminent as a reminder that mitigation efforts should increase. However, concerns have been raised about the priority of climatic agendas worldwide.
Recently, of the 195 parties that signed the Paris Agreement, only 13 presented emission reduction plans (“NATIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS” or NDCS) on the deadline of February 10. The parts that have completed these promises, aimed at addressing how nations will reduce emissions by 2035, include Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the US. Uu. Those who lost the deadline include some of the most economies Greats of the world, in particular China, India, India. , Russia and the European Union.
The two recent studies that predict a future in heating serve as a call for attention so that nations will adhere to the ambitious climatic plans and strive to immediate cuts in emissions.
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Article Sources
Our writers in Discovermagazine.com Use studies reviewed by pairs and high quality sources for our articles, and our editors review to obtain scientific precision and editorial standards. Check the sources used below for this article:
Jack Knudson is an assistant discover editor with great interest in the science and history of the environment. Before joining Discover in 2023, he studied journalism at the College of Communication scripps at the University of Ohio and previously admitted to Reycling Today magazine.
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